A cautiously optimistic picture for November from investment experts. according to of research scholarship Cardano’s Corné van Zeijl shows that ASML is still a favorite, while Philips is again on the flop list. There is also a newcomer to the list: ASMI.
October Review
October was not an easy month for the AEX, with a loss of 4%. The experts were divided, with a narrow majority among those who expected an increase. That hope turned out to be unfounded.
Awareness 1 month
The experts’ expectations for this month are a little more optimistic:
- 44% are optimistic (compared to 35% last month)
- 22% are neutral (36%)
- 33% are pessimistic (compared to 29%)
The balance is now +11%, compared to +6.3% last month.
Private investors are much more optimistic
As in the previous months, the experts are therefore much more optimistic than the private investors who participated in the measure National Investor Awareness by IEX. Here, 48.9% of investors expect the AEX to rise this month, and only 10.6% expect a decline.
A half-year notice
For the next 6 months, the number of optimists and pessimists among experts will balance each other. 29% expect a rising stock market, 29% a falling stock market. Experts have been more optimistic in recent months. During the previous measurement, almost 45% expected the AEX index to be higher in six months than it is now: the highest level in twelve months.
Here too, private investors are much more optimistic: 66.7% believe that the AEX index will be higher in six months than it is now. This is slightly less than last month (73.8%). Only 13% expect AEX to decline.
American Elections
The investment experts were also asked about the American elections: when will we know the results?
- 32% think that tomorrow we will know who the next president will be
- 42% expect it to happen sometime that week
- 24% expect it to be later, but this year
Stock options last month: ASML down
One part of the Stock Market Survey is the overview of stock market experts’ toppers and floppers of the past month. How did the October stock pick work?
ASML was the favorite last month. In retrospect, that was not the best choice of the experts, as ASML issued a huge profit warning. The price fell by 17%.
Since the alternatives were good (Shell, Unilever and DSM-Firmenich), the overall damage was not too bad. It would have been a nice bonus to not have ASML on the list.
The floppers did what was expected: a decline.
Fake long/short assets would have fallen 1.7%.
October Toppers |
Result | Floppers October | Result |
ASML | -16.7% | Philips | -18% |
Shell | 4.2% | ArcelorMittal | -3.7% |
Unilever | -1.8% | IMCD | -6.3% |
DSM-Firm | -11.8% | Alan | -0.3% |
* The balance represents the number of positive responses minus the number of negative responses.
November stock pick: ASML remains in the spotlight
ASML is again on the list of preferred investment experts for November, where it has been for the past 4 months. There is still confidence among the experts, although the proportion has always been in the red.
ASMI is in second place, followed by Ahold, KPN, Prosus and ABN Amro.
Toppers in November |
Opportunity* | FloppersNovember | Opportunity* |
ASML | 13 | Philips | -9 |
ASMI | 5 | Ex | -5 |
But Delhaize | 3 | Iron | -3 |
KPN | 2 | Randstad | -3 |
Process | 2 | ArcelorMittal | -3 |
ABN AMRO | 2 |
* The balance represents the number of positive responses minus the number of negative responses.
Private investors are also eager for chippers again
According to private investors, ASML is also very popular, followed by ASMI. But unlike the experts, private investors are positive about Besi. It remains to be seen what Besi will do next month, but for now experts and private individuals are not looking in the same direction. The other options are also different.
Toppers in November |
Opportunity* | Floppers November | Opportunity* |
ASML | +173 | Philips | -199 |
ASMI | +83 | Randstad | -76 |
Iron | +61 | ArcelorMittal | -57 |
Aegon | +32 | Ex | -33 |
Alan | +30 | Aczo Nobel | -27 |
* The balance represents the number of positive responses minus the number of negative responses.
Things to watch out for
For both experts and private investors, Philips is a stock that is better to avoid. The experts are expecting another decline after the disappointing results. Three other shares are also on the two flop lists: Randstad, ArcelorMittal and Exor. Private investors are also not happy with Akzo Nobel.
2024-11-05 14:15:00
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