US election updates: 7 states that will decide the fate of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

As the 2024 US presidential election draws to a close, seven swing states will determine the fate of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump.

These are the important states. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have 93 electoral votes. And 270 of the 538 electoral votes needed for the two candidates to win the presidency came from here.

Swing states are those that can swing between Democratic and Republican support depending on the election.

These states, with historically small voting margins and varying results over time, attract a lot of attention from candidates who focus their campaigns there to attract voters and key electoral votes. get On the last day of the campaign, Kamala Harris and Trump held marathon rallies in Pennsylvania, the largest of the swing states with 19 Electoral College votes. The American presidential election is today.

The importance of swing states

While all seven states are critical to the campaign, three states in particular—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—are critical to Kamala Harris’ path to victory.

Known as the “blue wall”, these states were reliable Democratic strongholds until Trump swept all three in 2016, breaking the region’s Democratic winning streak.

Joe Biden won these states for the Democrats in 2020, but by a narrow margin, highlighting their competitive nature and handing them to Harris in 2024.

Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes): Pennsylvania has historically gone Democratic, but Trump’s narrow victory in 2016 of just 0.7% underscores his battleground status. In 2020, Biden won Pennsylvania by a 1.2% margin, but it’s still very competitive. With 19 electoral votes in the state, a win in Pennsylvania would give Harris’ White House hopes a big boost. Both campaigns appealed to the state’s large working-class and union communities.

Michigan (15 electoral votes): Another important part of the “blue wall,” Michigan has consistently voted for the winning candidate in recent elections. Trump’s 2016 victory in Michigan marked the first Republican victory since 1988. In 2020, Biden won Michigan by about 154,000 votes. Holding Michigan in 2024 is crucial for Harris, as his 15 electoral votes could be crucial in the next race.

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): In the last two elections, the state voted for the winning candidate, but by thin margins. Winning Wisconsin is crucial for Harris, because flipping it or keeping it could make or break the overall balance in a tight election.

In addition to the “Blue Wall”, four other critical states:

Arizona (11 electoral votes): With the 2020 victory in Arizona, Biden became only the second Democrat in 70 years to win the state by a narrow margin of 10,457 votes. With a large suburban and Latino voting base, Arizona remains a priority for both campaigns.

Georgia (16 electoral votes): Biden almost carried Georgia in 2020, the first Democratic victory since 1992, thanks to the high turnout among African Americans, who make up a large portion of the state’s population. A re-election victory in Georgia could boost Harris’ poll numbers and consolidate Democratic power in the Sun.

North Carolina (16 electoral votes): Despite its consistently Republican history, North Carolina remains competitive. Trump won by narrow margins in 2016 and 2020, but growing urban centers and changing demographics keep it in contention for both parties.

Nevada (6 electoral votes): Nevada, which traditionally leans Democratic, is showing signs of a Republican resurgence due to high unemployment and economic challenges. Biden won Nevada by about 33,600 votes in 2020, but with the post-Covid recovery ahead, Nevada could turn red in 2024.

The path to success

Independent analysts estimate that Harris needs 45 electoral votes beyond the “safe” states expected to reach 270 in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Consolidating these three “Blue Wall” states will put her on the road to victory.

For Trump, the path to 270 key battleground states he won in 2016 must be regained, especially Pennsylvania and Michigan, along with victories in historically Democratic states like North Carolina.

Before the election, Harris and Trump campaigned heavily in these swing states. Harris emphasized themes of unity and community, aiming to build support within the “Blue Wall” and Sun Belt states. On the other hand, Trump focused on criticizing the current administration and promising economic recovery.