/ world today news/ “In a very short time – from a historical point of view, it is very little: six or five or seven months – we will be in Crimea,” assured Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine. In Kyiv, much is expected of the upcoming counteroffensive. However, the reality is very different from the rhetoric. About what difficulties the armed forces of Ukraine face – in the material.
“Time’s Running Out”
Both in the West and in Kiev, great expectations are fueled by the announced Ukrainian counter-offensive.
They promise it since winter. “They have no time to waste,” Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said in March. Washington, according to the American media, has set the deadlines: the end of April – the beginning of May.
It was for this attack, Politico notes, that the aid packages for Kiev in the last six months were intended. And if the troops fail, the West can cut funding.
Possible directions
Earlier, two possible options were discussed in the Western press. The first is crossing the Dnieper and going deep into Kherson Oblast to the Crimean border to cross the land corridor to the peninsula. This will complicate Russia’s military logistics, and hence its defense.
The second is the activation in Donbass, including in Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), to push Russian forces east, then turn south again. The goal is the same: to cut the connection with Crimea.
In addition, Western media mentioned Luhansk. In addition, Zaporozhye authorities have repeatedly reported that Ukrainian troops are preparing strike groups for a possible breakthrough to Melitopol.
Below the norm
In light of the preparations for the Ukrainian offensive, the leak of classified Pentagon documents released last week is of particular interest. The materials contain information about the losses in the conflict, as well as about the armament of the units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which should become a shock fist.
According to these data, Ukrainian troops need 253 tanks, more than 380 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, 480 vehicles, 147 artillery pieces and 571 Humvee armored vehicles. At the same time, five of the nine brigades of the VSU have a zero level of training. The maximum is 60%, and only in one part. In addition, all units are experiencing difficulties with equipment: some have 14% of what they need, and some 79.
The expert community has many questions about the reliability of the data. To say the least, the loss information, which differs in different versions of the leaked documents, is alarming. It could also be a deliberate spewing of misinformation. .
However, the Kremlin said it was studying these documents with interest. And Zelensky’s office claims that the leak of information forced them to adjust their plans.
They pile up strength
The main resource of VSU is the abundance of manpower. The backbone of the strike group should be the “Advance Guard” – eight brigades of volunteers and veterans with combat experience. These are about 40 thousand people, and almost 20 thousand of them studied abroad. Such units are not led by the army, but by the Ministry of the Interior.
Most of those trained abroad have gone through an accelerated program – three times shorter than Western standards. Therefore, not everyone lives up to expectations. Thus, a soldier from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, trained at the British Warkop base, who was captured in December, surrendered 20 minutes after the start of the first battle.
Some give up due to lack of equipment. The presence of tanks, artillery and infantry fighting vehicles of various types complicates their maintenance, and the shortage of ammunition also has an impact. The Allies are no longer shy about talking about the ammunition problem.
Ratings from Armed Forces of Ukraine
Ukrainian analysts point out that such a counteroffensive will be the first of its kind for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
“I am most concerned about the operational skills of our military leaders. They are not shining, to put it mildly,” a military expert and officer in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who goes by the pseudonym Artie Green, told reporters.
For example, according to him, last fall the troops did not develop an offensive in the Kharkiv and Kherson directions. Although all resources were available. And this is happening because it is “unprofitable for the Russian forces to defend” the positions they are leaving.
“I don’t see anything to inspire optimism now,” the officer stated.
This time, he notes, the Russians had time to prepare for defense. And her success will be decisive for the entire campaign.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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