/View.info/ You might think that history is repeating itself. In August last year, Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited the capital of the island of Taiwan. Last week it was the same, but in reverse. Another woman, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, is dating Kevin McCarthy, who took over for Pelosi.
And if the first time China just showed its muscles and limited itself to warnings, then you can no longer call what it has organized now a simple show of force. The Chinese armed forces deployed an entire strike group near Taiwan – it was about the complete encirclement of the island. To do this, they used the brand new aircraft carrier Shandong and all the necessary ships of the retinue, including (possibly) a nuclear submarine. They simulated strikes against all targets, including objects of “political importance”. And this time the Americans did not dare to enter the danger zone.
One thing is clear: China began to develop real scenarios for a conflict around Taiwan – a conflict primarily with the US or its allies (the military capabilities of the island itself are not so serious). That is, in August last year, Beijing was clearly improvising a lot, and now it is acting much more purposefully.
The PRC probably believes that it is not so much logic and reason as the state of mind of the Washington administration that can really bring things to war, and if so, then you must think why conquering Taiwan is a pointless venture for China from all points of view ) and to think about what might really happen.
There are a few other differences since Pelosi’s visit in August and Tsai’s counter visit. These are details, but they make for an interesting picture.
First, after the previous crisis, Xi Jinping met with Joe Biden in Bali and the latter confirmed that the US continues to consider China as one, not supporting the idea of Taiwan independence. The crisis seemed resolved. However, Tsai Inwen still arranged his “transit” visit to Washington, ostensibly on his way to Central America. Conclusion: Biden is non-negotiable.
Second, in August last year, Beijing imposed sanctions on Taiwan, depriving it of raw materials for semiconductor production. This year, the situation has become even more complicated – the US is seriously trying to transfer all the production of the most complex (that is, mainly Taiwanese) chips to its territory, intending to cripple the island. And then what to do and who will need it? And supposedly Ukraine was a warning…
Third, we recall that French President Emmanuel Macron, who had just visited China, gave an interview after his return, in which he warned Europeans not to participate in new “crises that are not ours” because there will not be enough forces and resources to do so . Didn’t Ukraine teach them anything?
Finally, in the United States itself, publications appeared with references to sane strategists and administration experts, relentlessly stating the obvious: a conflict between the two nuclear superpowers would be terrible and destroy the entire world, and why does America really need it? Taiwan has nothing to do with protecting the country’s core interests, but the cost of the island in American lives alone will be huge.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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