The main trading partner, the most important ally in the immigration crisis, the target of accusations in the war against drug trafficking. Mexico is cautiously approaching the United States elections on November 5. The close race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris will be critical for the bilateral relationship, marked by the geographical fate of a shared border that extends more than 3,000 kilometers. Trump’s possible return raises alarm bells on the other side of the border. The potential arrival of Harris does not cause overwhelming optimism either, in light of the recent tensions with the Joe Biden Administration. “Whoever wins, there will be a hardening of United States policy towards Mexico,” warns Jorge Schiavon, a specialist at the Universidad Iberoamericana. There is no other foreign country more affected by how the balance is going to tip.
The Trump-Risk Index, created by the magazine The Economist To measure the impact of his return on the world, it places Mexico at the top of the list of the countries most vulnerable to a second term for the Republican candidate. The tycoon built his campaign in 2016 under slogans such as “build the wall”, the myth of the “bad men” and xenophobic slogans such as “when Mexico sends its people, they don’t send us the best,” but rather “rapists” and “murderers.”
Already in the Government, he threatened with a tariff war and the cancellation of the free trade agreement (TMEC) to turn Mexico into an immense immigration wall. In this race, Trump has once again hit “the Mexican piñata” with racist and threatening tricks. But specialists and former collaborators, such as Steve Bannon, warn that he is not exactly the same character who was in power for four years. “It comes recharged, or as Bannon said, in war mode,” asserts internationalist Mauricio Meschoulam.
Drug trafficking, migration and trade. The main issues regarding Mexico do not change, regardless of whether it is Trump or Harris, specialists agree. “The words that best describe the current situation of bilateral security cooperation are absolute distrust,” says Schiavon. The atmosphere between both countries has become tense after the unexpected and controversial capture of Ismael May Zambada and Washington’s questions about the controversial judicial reform of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, which subjects the election of judges, magistrates and ministers of the Supreme Court to a popular vote.
The Government of Claudia Sheinbaum, which faces glimpses of a constitutional crisis in the midst of a confrontation with the Judiciary, blames the United States for the wave of violence that has devastated Sinaloa since the May arrest and rejects the interference of the White House in its politics. internal. Ambassador Ken Salazar has made it clear that there are fears among investors due to the lack of legal guarantees, and has sought to heal the wounds caused by the Zambada capture operation, after not notifying or consulting his Mexican counterparts before consummating it. However, the exchange of reproaches and questions prevails and has been quite public. And the episodes of extreme violence in recent weeks south of the border have raised doubts in Washington about Mexico’s ability to control the cartels.
Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally in Wisconsin on October 30.Jacquelyn Martin (AP)
Despite public statements about the “good health” of the bilateral relationship, diplomatic channels point out the erosion between the Mexican Government and the Democratic Administration, in theory, the friendliest face of the United States. Salazar has held at least a dozen meetings with members of Sheinbaum’s Cabinet, but he has also shown signs of having lost the right of doorknob that he had during López Obrador’s presidency. In September, the former president imposed a “diplomatic pause” on the Washington representative for his comments against judicial reform and his successor has maintained that distance.
“There was, particularly in the last year, a strategic tolerance from Biden towards Mexico, as long as the Mexican government fulfilled its part of the deal,” says Schiavon. The current president sees his neighbor as a decisive ally to contain migration. And the Mexican authorities have delivered results, despite criticism for the militarization of immigration policy and the treatment that immigrants receive. Border Patrol (CBP) apprehensions went from almost 250,000 last December to just under 54,000 in September, the lowest figure in the last year, according to official data. But he impasse in joint security efforts is behind unilateral actions such as the arrest of Zambada without the participation of Mexican agencies. “The relationship with the Democrats has not been a honeymoon,” says Meschoulam.
“Harris pursues similar objectives to Trump in structural issues, what changes are the styles to obtain them,” adds the specialist. The Democrat is seen as more “institutional” and “predictable,” and less “erratic” than her rival. Experts anticipate a greater affinity with Sheinbaum, which goes beyond the fact that they are both women. But the candidate has been one of the main people singled out for the immigration crisis as vice president and voted against the USMCA when she was a senator. The treaty will be reviewed in 2026, but the tone and adoption of protectionist attitudes will define whether it will be a renegotiation or a mere review. Democrats have also signaled they are willing to tighten border control to address domestic criticism.
More than migration or the fight against drug trafficking, the diagnosis of The Economist is particularly pessimistic about Mexico on economic issues. A deficit trade balance, the importance of exports and the economic dependence of both countries are the main reasons. But the main themes are mixed. Remittances, for example, reached an all-time high in June, more than $6.2 billion. The exchange rate has also been a thermometer of political nervousness and diplomatic clashes. Trump has already shown that he feels comfortable combining agendas: he conditioned the approval of the USMCA on immigration control.
The Republican candidate has promised to reach one million deportations annually, which also includes raids and arrests against people who have been in the United States for years. “Mass deportations would have a terrible impact on the American economy,” he predicts. Although Trump’s numbers do not seem realistic, his statements fuel nervousness because there are five million Mexicans in an irregular situation, according to the Migration Policy Institute.
“There will be, as we have said, coordination without subordination,” Sheinbaum said this week, a phrase that also appeared in her first massive event as president, on October 1, in the Zócalo of Mexico City. “Whether President Trump or Vice President Harris arrives, that is our policy, that the root causes of migration must be addressed,” the president added, although the principle also applies to other areas, such as security.
Donald Trump at a campaign event in Nevada, October 31.ALLISON DINNER (EFE)
Much has been written about Sheinbaum’s handling of Trump and how the relationship would be configured without López Obrador. The former president abandoned the confrontational speech of the 2018 campaign, even with the publication of a book (Hey Trump) a year earlier, and “worked” his American counterpart until reaching a transactional agreement: cooperating (and sometimes, giving in) in exchange for no American interference in internal affairs.
It is not a secret for specialists and diplomats consulted: the former presidents understood each other well, despite their political differences. That tone changed with the Democrats, more willing to question issues as diverse as working conditions to the situation of human rights. “But López Obrador is no longer here and Sheinbaum has no experience dealing with Trump,” says Meschoulam.
Even before his victory in the June elections, Sheinbaum spoke in April of the creation of a team to draw up a strategy against the United States, coordinated by the current chancellor, Juan Ramón de la Fuente, and in which the former chancellor also participates. Marcelo Ebrard. Trump, however, has ridiculed the negotiations he had with Ebrard, current Secretary of Economy and key to the review of the USMCA, and has boasted in several rallies that Mexicans gave him “everything he wanted.”
Schiavon is skeptical of how prepared Mexico’s new government is to deal with the new president of the United States. “We are in the bones in terms of capacity, both budgetary and personnel, to face it,” he asserts about the austerity policies promoted by López Obrador. Mexico’s consular network in the United States, with 53 legations, is the largest in the world, but it has had to tighten its belt, like the rest of the agencies.
Every 12 years, Mexico and the United States renew the political board with presidential elections held months apart. And despite the fears and problems, the bilateral relationship is inescapable. Washington will have to deal with Mexico and vice versa. Before that happens, 250 million voters are called to the polls, including more than 36 million Hispanics, the largest number in history. Although almost six out of 10 Latinos are of Mexican origin, according to the Pew Research Center, many do not have the right to vote. However, the prognosis of the election, like that of the implications for Mexico, is reserved.
