Kenneth Weinstein is a leading US foreign policy analyst, 2020 US ambassador-designate to Japan, and a leading figure at the conservative think tank Hudson Institute.
What impact will the November 5 elections have on the United States and the world?
«This is a critical election for the United States and the world. We have seen the decline of the American deterrent under the Biden-Harris administration with major wars in Europe and the Middle East. Harris has little understanding of US foreign policy and has not demonstrated the ability to stand up to America’s adversaries. Furthermore, she has been highly critical of Israel’s war against Hamas and Hezbollah, a sign that she believes in Obama’s policy of forcing our allies to make pre-emptive concessions to our adversaries. Her weakness will be tested almost immediately if she is elected president by Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.”
How would Trump or Harris’ approach to the Middle East change?
«Trump would allow Israel to take the necessary steps to continue to decapitate Hezbollah and Hamas and prevent Iran from posing a major threat in the Middle East. It would not stop Israel from trying to end Iran’s nuclear program. Harris would hamper Israel’s defense, as she has done numerous times, including by declaring that she had studied maps around Rafah and that Israel could never effectively evacuate Rafah without serious civilian casualties. Indeed, Israel evacuated Rafah with far less humanitarian hardship than Harris anticipated, and it was there that Israel found and killed Hamas leader Sinwar.”
And in Ukraine?
«Harris’s position on Ukraine is vague. He does not have a transatlantic approach like Biden whose years in the Senate led him to focus on European defense. I have a feeling he would be soft on Ukraine and impose even greater limits on Ukraine’s use of force than Biden or his closest ally, German Chancellor Scholz, has called for. Trump has been clear: he would like to end the war but will arm Ukraine to the hilt if Russia refuses to accept a ceasefire. I have a feeling that if Europe created an EU peacekeeping force between Russia and Ukraine, made up of European soldiers, not American or NATO troops, Trump might be willing to do more for Ukraine.”
Don’t you think that the new alliance between Russia and China could represent a serious danger for the West?
«I believe that the alliance, particularly with its North Korean and Iranian nodes, represents a significant threat to the United States and our allies. We failed to stop Russia from invading Ukraine, a huge mistake by the Biden administration who removed sanctions from NordStream 2 and showed strategic fatigue in our withdrawal from Afghanistan. Not imposing oil sanctions on Iran encourages it to arm its proxy groups with readily available funds. The focus on cooperation with Xi Jinping and the lack of attention to increasing American defense spending have also sent the wrong signals to Beijing.”
If Trump won, do you think he would have good relations with the conservative Italian government led by Giorgia Meloni?
«I believe that Giorgia Meloni will be the Shinzo Abe of Trump’s second term: the world leader that the President consults most before making important decisions on global affairs.
She, like Trump, is a populist-conservative, a person not beholden to conventional wisdom or traditional bureaucracy. Like Trump she is grossly underestimated by her political opponents and is immensely more attractive compared to other European leaders, which means a lot to Trump.”
