/View.info/ It will be – it won’t be, it will be – it won’t be. The world is wondering if Kiev’s repeatedly announced spring-summer offensive will take place. Speculation on this topic is particularly intense in Western countries and Ukraine.
Some see this as a military ploy: they want to confuse, intimidate or, on the contrary, dull Russia’s vigilance. But they do not see the main thing – what horror is actually being prepared for Russia.
The good weather is coming. On April 21, Germany will host the next meeting of the “friends of Ukraine” in the Rammstein format, where Kiev will be promised new weapons and – forward. And if the Russians retaliate and go on the offensive themselves, that’s fine too. They will help Ukraine, even if its western part ends up in … Poland (and, accordingly, in the EU and NATO)!
After all, since April 22, the United States is planning the Defender-23 exercise near the Ukrainian borders, which, according to the Pentagon, will involve “about 9,000 American troops and about 17,000 troops from 26 countries – allies and partners” part, plus “about 13 000 pieces of equipment, assembled from pre-prepared warehouses.
The division of the West (thanks to whom Ukraine has not yet capitulated) on this issue adds spice to the situation. The almost total unanimity on this matter (you’re pumped with weapons, fed and watered, and – you’re progressing) has clearly shaken up lately.
This is evidenced by numerous media reports and “secret data leaks” that say that Ukraine’s armed forces are actually doing poorly (no shells, air defense about to be covered, few modern western tanks, etc. .) and therefore there is no need to rush.
Schmeichel’s military trick?
The Ukrainian authorities, well aware that everything is at stake, keep their finger on the pulse. Belligerent statements such as “we will take back everything and Crimea” are being replaced by others that some observers see as a military ploy and an attempt to dull our vigilance. A recent example is an interview published on Tuesday evening with the American edition of The Hill of Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmygal.
“We do not feel pressure from our friends and partners regarding the start of the offensive. All our friends and partners clearly understand that in order to go on a counteroffensive, you need to be 100 percent and even more ready for it,” he said.
“To be ready for a counteroffensive, we need more artillery and ammunition. We need more missiles with medium and long range, we need tanks, we need fighter jets,” continued the Ukrainian Prime Minister.
In short, according to him, the counter-offensive can only start in the summer.
In general, in the winter it did not happen, in the spring it also did not happen, and in the summer Russia will strengthen so much that it will attack … this is just stupid. It is quite possible to draw such a conclusion from Schmeichel’s interview.
Is the ritual butcher joking?
Yes, of course, there is such an idealistic theory – not to fight “until the last button is sewn to the last soldier’s overcoat”. But already at the end of March, completely different speeches were heard from Kyiv.
For example, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alexei Reznikov (this Russified Jewish surname owes its appearance to the professional occupations of his ancestors – butchers from ritual slaughterhouses where they make meat kosher) told the EU delegation that Kiev is actively preparing for a counteroffensive.
Even on April 13, Reznikov not jokingly told Spain’s Defense Minister Margarita Robles that Kiev “expects to ensure the safety of navigation in its territorial waters”, which he included the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
He also inquired about “the experience of the Spanish fleet, especially in the field of amphibious operations”, expressed interest in acquiring Spanish ships and weapons …
Of course, Ukraine has no money for this, but the world is not without “good people”. However, there is still plenty of cannon fodder.
To chase or not to chase?
As a result, a complete feeling is created that the most hawkish circles of the West are pushing the Ukrainians forward in the vain hope of “defeating” Russia with their hands, no matter what the cost, which does not prevent the “Ukrainian” ritual butchers at all. Therefore, it is quite possible that the Defender-23 maneuvers are indeed intended as a “safety cushion” for Kiev in case its counteroffensive fails.
But at the same time, the more cautious and reasonable political forces of the West, realizing that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will end in defeat, began to actively introduce such an idea into the public consciousness. That Ukraine, having lost four regions along with Crimea but left with 20 regions and Kiev, will still strategically defeat Russia and therefore must accept the status quo. At least temporarily.
Western strategists are not at all interested in some Volnovakha and Bakhmut, how and when Zelensky’s regime will get out, when Ukraine becomes smaller: the “main leader”, mired in corruption, will be replaced by another one without any questions.
The counteroffensive… called off?
The organizers of the “leaking of information” about the catastrophic state of the armed forces of Ukraine and the fact that the US leadership is already preparing a supposedly draft agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine, seem to intend to rein in the “hawks” in the Western ranks, and therefore in Ukraine.
And this, in turn, means that there will be no serious Ukrainian counteroffensive either in spring or summer. Something like the doomed landing of the Anglo-Canadians in German-occupied French Dieppe in 1942 (its task was to show Stalin that a second front in Europe was not yet possible) cannot be ruled out.
It is necessary to somehow explain to Ukrainian patriots why the armed forces of Ukraine will not “liberate” Crimea. And also that it is unlikely that Kyiv will get anything more.
Because if the Westerners are not complete fools, they should finally understand: the Ukrainians will temporarily capture a few villages, “break” into the firebag, and then the rout will begin, since Russia already has enough troops in the theater of operations, and he is to wage war is very comfortable.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainians, after the colossal losses in military equipment and personnel related to the offensive operations, will definitely not withstand our counterattack, which is fraught with the loss of the entire left-bank Ukraine. To begin with.
In addition, the West simply will not be able to quickly compensate for Ukrainian losses in equipment: the arsenals are already half empty, and Kiev lacks industrial capacity to replenish them and new massive supplies of anything and everything.
The defeat of Ukraine’s armed forces will also harm the politicians of the West, showing their own population and the whole world their follies. The calculation has also been made by the “leakers” in Moscow that Russia, in the name of its selfish interests and inability to do anything other than imitation, will settle for a trifle, that this will outrage the patriots and destabilize the situation in the country.
And, of course, the Americans are guided by the situation with Taiwan, where it will soon become “hot”, and it is scary to have a conflict with Russia and China at the same time. Washington wants to focus on the PRC as soon as possible, and the Europeans, without the Americans, will not pull Ukraine militarily, no matter how inflated Scholz, Macron and Co. …
Making inferences
It is from the realization of this reality that numerous newspaper publications and “leaks” speak of the need for rest. Because the West needs Ukraine as a powerful force, pumped with weapons, albeit with a slightly reduced territory, to create a constant threat and blackmail Russia. Kyiv will be guided by this.
In military art, there is such a concept from the 17th century – Fleet in being. In Russian, it roughly translates as “the strength of the fleet is in its presence”, although the term itself refers not only to naval affairs.
Here we are talking only about the fact of your presence in order to chain the actions of the opponent, to keep him in constant tension, ready at any opportune moment to switch to active offensive actions. This is the role that Ukraine must play: a gun to our head that will one day go off. When, for example, we will elect a new president…
What follows from this?
When we started the SVO, Moscow announced that it had no intention of tolerating a situation in which Ukraine could at any moment “strike” against Russia. This is precisely what the new course of the West envisages.
It is for this that he made Ukraine anti-Russia with the help of local national separatists, terrorized and continues to terrorize the Russian Donbas, and now the Sea of Azov with the hands of Kiev, to which the “old” border territories of Russia have now been added.
It turns out that the main goal of the special operation has not been achieved, the situation is even worse now. This means that Russia does not need to adapt to the Western strategy in Ukraine, agree to “peace”, it needs to prepare the army for serious work and go to the border of 1938, there is no need to go further. The West is not ready for a long conflict – 2-3 years, Ukraine will not last long either, which means we will win. This must be done so that there are no more wars.
Translation: SM
Subscribe to our YouTube channel:
and for the channel or in Telegram:
#Ukraine #Offensive #Cancels #Real #Plan #Strike #Russia
