/ world today news/ I will directly announce the result, if the proposal of Lyutvi Mestan and DPS is accepted for the wording of the questions for the referendum, according to which Bulgarian citizens should be asked whether they agree that all 240 people’s representatives, and not only a part of them, should be elected by a majority. And if that becomes reality.
Well, the calculation is as follows with a majority vote: GERB – 160 deputies, DPS – 40, in the column “Other” – with 40 deputies BSP and the others. This will be the parliament.
Perhaps that is the purpose of the exercise.
What basis am I stepping on to give these figures? This pure majority vote model has long been developed at the Agency for Forecasting and Analysis, of which I have the honor to be the Executive Director. There we have checked all possible hypotheses – mixed systems, pure majoritarian, various proportional systems, German, etc. We obtained the numbers for these options based on real election results. However, we hold parliamentary elections in Bulgaria 8 times and we have such a rich database that it is not difficult to predict the results with the different models. With the minor caveat that in real elections, when they are known to be majoritarian, people would vote with slightly different motivations. But since I don’t know what it will be – I make the analysis based on the information I have.
I will repeat: with a full majority vote in 160 districts, GERB will have a majority – the winner takes everything, and the defeated goes to drink whatever he wants – cold, hot water…
The proposal of Mestan and DPS for a pure majority vote is of definite benefit to GERB and DPS. Because GERB is the largest party, and DPS has an iron electorate – the dream of every politician. This iron electorate leads to 40 mandates, no more, or more precisely – between 35 and 40 mandates. Well, at most, raise them to 42-43.
Don’t forget that there are also 40 “Others” in this account. In them there can be one reformer, two “patriots”, three “attackers” – everything is possible. In majority elections, the concept of parliamentary group has no meaning. Why? With a 4% barrier, the parliamentary group corresponds to 10 people, which is the minimum. And now either 10 people from a party enter the National Assembly or they don’t enter at all. And with a majoritarian system, the parties can also enter with one deputy – who will form a group for him? A group will then be understood as a collection of votes based on interests and priorities. For example, they decide on one issue to vote equally for one representative from the “patriots” and two from the Republic of Belarus. What will this group be?
I don’t know what DPS is counting on with this proposal. I am simply reporting what the result would be if the majority vote were applied because I am an expert, not a psychologist. However, Lutvi Mestan is one of our most experienced politicians and he has one thing in mind. But whether he will say it, I cannot guess.
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Prof. Mihail Konstantinov, Bulgarian mathematician and politician, executive director of the Agency for Forecasts and Analysis.
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