How much will it rise if Trump is elected? Bitcoin on fire

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With the U.S. presidential election just four days away, the virtual asset market continues to rise and fall each day depending on the possibility of former President Donald Trump being elected. As the possibility of Trump’s return to power increased to 67%, the price of Bitcoin exceeded $73,000 in seven months, exceeding 100 million won in Korean currency, and was on the verge of breaking an all-time high. Currently, it has given back some of the gains and has fallen below $70,000.

The recent rise in Bitcoin coincides with the point where former President Trump’s probability of winning began to surpass that of Vice President Kamala Harris. This is due to the expectation that, unlike the current Biden administration, it will bring about favorable policy changes to the virtual asset market. On top of this, more big players on Wall Street are choosing Bitcoin as a hedge over U.S. bonds.

On the 1st, we looked at the flow of virtual assets and investment strategies after the US presidential election with Taemin Oh, adjunct professor at the Graduate School of Information and Communication at Konkuk University, and Lee Yongjae, senior manager at Mirae Asset Securities.

● “If Trump is elected, Bitcoin rises sharply for 1-2 months.”

Professor Oh Tae-min said, “If former President Trump succeeds in coming back to power, the virtual asset market will fluctuate.” He added, “Trump said he would have U.S. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler resign on the day he was elected, and virtual assets continued to fluctuate throughout the election period. “I have been leading the debate,” he said. Of particular note were Trump’s pledges regarding national stockpiling and mining. Professor Oh predicted, “If Trump is elected, there is no concern that the 200,000 Bitcoins held by the U.S. government will enter the market, and Bitcoin mining will also be actively conducted at the U.S. sale gas site.”

He also noted the expansion of investment in virtual assets by global companies as a factor driving up prices. Recently, Microsoft announced that it plans to list Bitcoin investment as an agenda item at the general shareholders’ meeting in December. Regarding this, “Global companies such as Microsoft are concerned about cryptocurrency assets as foreign governments may freeze their assets depending on changes in the country’s own environment.” “It’s rising,” he explained.

Meanwhile, senior manager Lee Yong-jae said, “This is largely considered Bitcoin’s fourth halving. In particular, this halving was a huge trigger for full-scale investment by institutional investors triggered by ETFs, even if interest rates were not as low as expected.” . Senior manager Lee said, “20% of Bitcoin spot ETFs are from institutional investors,” and “Like the recent launch of the Ethereum ETF, Wall Street’s representative IBs will launch ETFs for major digital assets one after another, and will pursue various strategies in addition to tracking returns.” He predicted that if Trump is elected, the development of the virtual asset ETF market on Wall Street will accelerate along with the relaxation of financial regulations.

● Beware of ‘fake and excessive news’… “Savings investment is also popular”

However, the risk factor for virtual assets, unlike stocks, is that they are highly volatile as good and bad news are unclear. How much do experts think the price of Bitcoin will rise in this extremely volatile market?

Professor Oh Tae-min said, “When this halving began, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin was that it would rise to $150,000 (about 200 million won). If Vice President Harris is elected, it will struggle in the beginning, but it is likely that we will be able to see that price in the latter half of her term. “If Trump is elected, we will see a sharp rise in just one or two months,” he predicted.

Professor Oh continued, “When investing in virtual assets, the risk is that there is too much information about Bitcoin and too little information about other coins.” “In particular, investments that rely on leverage should be avoided,” he emphasized. He also added, “If the price has already risen a lot in a short period of time, someone should think that it is time to sell in large quantities.”

Senior manager Lee Yong-jae said, “All types of financial products and securities, including stocks, bonds, and funds, will evolve into more and more tokenized forms in the future.” “It seems to be valid,” he advised.

※ Full details can be found in the Korea Economic TV video through the following link.

Supporting Reporter ycho@wowtv.co.kr