[선데이 칼럼] Chairman Kim Jong-un’s risky gamble

Young-Kwan Yoon, Chairman of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies and former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade

Chairman <a href="https://www.world-today-news.com/propaganda-in-north-korea-kim-jong-un-god-can-read-minds/" title="Propaganda in North Korea, Kim Jong-Un God Can Read Minds”>Kim Jong-un‘s gamble is causing a serious crisis for North Korea itself, the Korean Peninsula, and the international security situation. On December 30 last year, Chairman Kim Jong-un defined inter-Korean relations as a “hostile relationship between two countries.” The ‘national unification’ policy passed down from previous generations was discarded and all political symbols were destroyed. In this way, the psychological and political control mechanism that allowed the North to attack its own people when it attacked the South was removed. As a result, the crisis on the Korean Peninsula escalated further.

Will this new strategy toward South Korea be successful? North Korean people are experiencing the worst economic hardship since the Arduous March in the mid-1990s. Instead of fundamental measures to revive the economy, they call for anachronistic “self-reliance,” and instead of the “national unification” they have been accustomed to for decades, they introduce the absurd theory of “two hostile nations,” which is unlikely to go down well with the residents.

Although there are economic benefits from sending troops to Russia,
If there are casualties, residents’ dissatisfaction is likely to increase.
Possibility of political crisis originating within North Korea
Externally, North Korea-China relations worsen

In that situation, the decision was made to send troops to Russia. There were also media reports that the country would receive approximately 720 billion won in revenue per year in return for sending 12,000 troops. But most of this revenue will go into the coffers of the most powerful. Moreover, if the number of casualties continues to rise, the families’ dissatisfaction will become more intense. Ultimately, the dissatisfaction and anger of North Korean residents may reach a critical point, creating a political crisis.

Chairman Kim Jong-un’s deployment of troops to Russia is also a gamble in North Korea’s foreign strategy. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the end of the Cold War, North Korea has unilaterally relied on China to maintain its regime. China treated North Korea as a strategic buffer zone necessary to confront the United States and helped maintain the regime with food and energy support, diplomatic and military support.

However, North Korea revived its military alliance with Russia, whose support was urgently needed due to the war in Ukraine, and even dispatched troops in addition to providing weapons. As a result, North Korea is pulling Russia into an important axis of ensuring the security of its regime. Regardless of whether the war in Ukraine is won or lost, North Korea can now demand from Russia, “Our soldiers shed blood to help you, so if a war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, shouldn’t you also help us?”

At the same time, North Korea’s troop dispatch to Russia contains a strong intention to break away from unilateral dependence on China. Although it will not completely leave China, it will put Russia on the same level as China as a security support country. At the same time, it appears that he is trying to maximize support for both sides by competing with China and Russia, just as President Kim Il-sung did in the past. However, China is protesting, and so relations between North Korea and China have become difficult recently.

Chairman Kim Jong-un is actively pushing this strategy to find a breakthrough in the chaotic world situation, where wars in Europe and the Middle East and the confrontation between the United States and China are fierce. But it’s a risky gamble. First of all, by going all-in on exaggerated optimism about Russia’s future, they are inviting the risk of alienating China, whose gross domestic product (GDP) is nine times larger than Russia’s (as of 2023). They are also underestimating the West’s response, such as the possibility of deploying psychological warfare against the North Korean military.

China faces a serious strategic challenge. China has pursued the maintenance of North Korea’s regime in a buffer zone and stability on the Korean Peninsula. However, North Korea and Russia are paying no attention to this and are strengthening cooperation, escalating the crisis. If that happens, the security networks of Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, etc., centered around the United States, will be further strengthened, and this is a situation that China absolutely does not want. The US Biden administration appears to have recently asked the Chinese government to use its influence to get North Korea to stop sending troops. However, it is questionable how much influence China will have to control North Korea and Russia.

The United States announced that it would not place restrictions on the use of offensive weapons provided to Ukraine once it became clear that North Korea would send troops to Russia. As if in response, Russia released a video of a training exercise in the use of tactical nuclear weapons. This is one example of how sending North Korean troops could trigger the spread of the war in Ukraine. With the dispatch of North Korean troops, the situation in Ukraine has become more difficult and complicated.

North Korea’s deployment of troops poses serious difficulties to South Korea’s security. First, the possibility of Russian intervention increases when a North-South conflict occurs on the Korean Peninsula. In addition, North Korea’s conventional forces will be strengthened by reflecting the modern warfare experience gained on the Ukrainian front. Above all, if Russia provides North Korea with nuclear technology and know-how accumulated through over 1,000 nuclear tests, re-entry of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), nuclear-powered submarines, and military reconnaissance satellite-related technologies, North Korea will be able to use not only nuclear weapons but also conventional power. will become an even more serious threat. Chairman Kim Jong-un said that the United States, which is supposed to provide extended deterrence to South Korea, is facing domestic political division and difficulties amid the Ukraine war, the Middle East war, heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and deepening confrontation between the United States and China, which provides North Korea with a golden opportunity to attack South Korea. You may misjudge that there is.

How should we respond in the face of this crisis? We need to take a step-by-step response while watching the developments in Ukraine and the U.S. presidential election, but we need to be cautious as providing lethal weapons could trigger the transfer of Russian military technology to North Korea. And in the political world, we must show unity rather than making security the subject of domestic political strife. It would not seem prudent in the eyes of the public to claim that North Korea’s support of arms or troops to Russia was all the fault of the South Korean government.

Young-Kwan Yoon, Chairman of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies and former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade