World Series results, stock index… All kinds of ‘prediction methods’ rampant in the ultra-close US presidential election

“If the National League team wins, the democratic candidate will be elected”… This year’s winning team, the Dodgers, are NL

Predictions based on stock index trends and the ’13 keys’ historical methodology were also discussed.

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Lim Hwa-seop = The US presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris (Democratic Party) and former President Donald Trump (Republican Party) is five days away, but the outcome is still unfolding in a very close situation where the winner cannot be predicted, predicting the result. All kinds of methods are being developed for this purpose.

Some of these are serious models based on past experience and data, but others are simply jinxes or myths.

Among the widely known jinxes, there is the ‘Redskins Rule’.

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If the American professional football (NFL) Washington Redskins win their last home game before the presidential election day, the ruling party candidate will win, and if the Redskins lose, the opposition candidate will win.

This jinx was first mentioned by sports statistics analyst Steve Hurt in 2000, and was true in all 16 presidential elections from 1940 to 2000 without exception.

NFL Washington Commanders celebrate victory at their home stadium

(UPI, Landover, Maryland, USA = Yonhap News) Home team fans are cheering after the Washington Commanders won 18 to 15 against the Chicago Bears at Northwest Stadium, their home stadium, on October 27, 2024. (Photo by Bonnie Cash/ UPI) 2024.11.1.

However, in the five presidential elections from 2004 to 2020, it was correct only once in 2008, and in the remaining four times it was incorrect.

For this reason, there is talk among luxury enthusiasts that starting from 2004, the rules should be applied in the opposite way.

The Washington Redskins changed their team name to ‘Washington Commanders’ in February 2022, so it is now appropriate to call it the ‘Commander’s Rule’.

The Commanders defeated the Chicago Bears 18 to 15 at their home stadium, Northwest Stadium, on October 27 this year.

According to the original jinx, it would be a favorable sign for Vice President Kamala Harris of the current ruling Democratic Party, but since the trend over the past 20 years has been the opposite, there is room for interpretation that it is a favorable sign for former President Donald Trump of the current opposition Republican Party.

There is also a jinx that if the American League (AL) team wins the Major League Baseball (MLB) World Series (WS) in the year in which the U.S. presidential election is held, the Republican presidential candidate wins, and if the National League (NL) team wins, the Democratic presidential candidate wins. .

Dodgers cheering for winning the World Series

(New York AFP = Yonhap News) Los Angeles (LA) Dodgers players defeated the New York Yankees 7-6 in Game 5 of the 2024 Major League Baseball (MLB) World Series (WS) held at Yankee Stadium in New York on the 30th (local time). Cheering after winning. 2024.10.31

This jinx was first talked about in 1972, and was hit seven times in a row from 1952 to 1976. However, in 1980, the NL Philadelphia Phillies won the championship and Republican Ronald Reagan was elected, breaking the jinx.

After that, it was correct in 1984, but continued to miss in 1988, 1992, and 1996.

However, in the six presidential elections from 2000 to 2020, it was correct five times, excluding 2016.

Since the NL Los Angeles Dodgers won this year’s WS, it is a favorable sign for Harris.

A more serious attempt at forecasting involves proposing the probability of winning based on movements in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Based on the results of a regression analysis tailored to historical data over the past 120 years since 1900, we looked at the increase rate of the DJIA index from the beginning of the year in which the presidential election was held to October 31, and calculated the corresponding probability of the ruling party’s presidential candidate winning. It is a way to pay.

The logic is that a rise in the DJIA generally means that the economy is booming, and therefore tends to be advantageous to the ruling party candidate.

The probability of Harris winning is 69%?

(Seoul = Yonhap News) A graph showing the correlation between the growth rate of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index of the U.S. stock market from the beginning of the year to October 31 of the year in which the U.S. presidential election is held and the probability of winning the presidential candidate of the ruling party at the time. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’s probability of winning in 2024, indicated by a red arrow, is 69%. [다우존스 마켓워치 사이트 그래프 캡처] 2024.11.1.

Based on this model, financial analyst Mark Hulbert, a senior columnist at MarketWatch, a Dow Jones & Company subsidiary, suggested that Harris’s probability of winning was 69% as of October 31. This is a slight decrease from the 72% calculated on October 17.

Hulbert acknowledged that predictive models always have limitations and this method is no exception, but said, “Judging by past performance, this model is worth paying attention to.”

Some say that if the movement of the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index increases during the three months before the presidential election, the ruling party’s presidential candidate has an advantage, and if it falls, the opposition party’s presidential candidate has an advantage.

According to financial services company LPL Financial, this method was successful in 20 of the 24 presidential elections held over the past 96 years and was wrong in 4 of them.

Among the hit cases was Trump’s election in 2016, which is considered the most unexpected result in U.S. presidential election history. However, it did not apply to the 2020 presidential election.

[그래픽] Harris-Trump approval ratings in key US presidential election race states

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Kim Young-eun = With the U.S. presidential election approaching 5 days away on the 31st (local time), there are differences between Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, not only across the country but also in major battleground states. It appears that the battle over ultra-thin ice within the range is continuing.
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There is also a way to estimate the prospects for winning based on characteristic indicators across the board, including politics, society, and the economy.

Alan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University, began predicting the results of U.S. presidential elections in 1984, and until 2020, he got the results right in 9 out of 10 presidential elections. The only time it went astray was in 2000, when Democrat Al Gore was ahead in total national votes, but Republican George W. Bush won after a legal battle over vote counting that went all the way to the Supreme Court.

He has made predictions by individually checking what he calls the ’13 keys’ and adding up the results.

Items to be considered are ① the position of the ruling party ② the presidential primary ③ the candidate’s incumbent status ④ a third candidate ⑤ short-term economic performance ⑥ long-term economic performance ⑦ policy change ⑧ social unrest ⑨ scandal ⑩ diplomatic and military failure ⑪ diplomatic and military success ⑫ charisma of the incumbent ⑬ It is the challenger’s charisma.

Based on the ruling party’s presidential candidate, if 8 or more of these 13 factors are judged to be advantageous, victory in the presidential election is judged likely, and if 6 or more are judged to be unfavorable, defeat in the presidential election is likely.

Professor Alan Lichtman YouTube

(Seoul = Yonhap News) A capture of the YouTube channel of Alan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University who has been predicting the results of the U.S. presidential election since 1984. 2024.11.1.

In his prediction in early September of this year, Professor Lichtman predicted that Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris would win in 8 out of 13 items, and he is sticking to this prediction.

He said on his YouTube channel on the 29th of last month, “Despite the opinion polls (which show that the trend is leaning towards Trump), there are no factors that can change the prediction I made on September 5th.”

Professor Lichtman said, “I don’t have a crystal ball,” but expressed pride that his prediction method, developed based on historical experience since the 1860s, has a fairly solid foundation.

He said, “It is possible that something so enormous and unprecedented could happen that the pattern of history is broken, but there is no way to know in advance, and that does not mean that the validity of my prediction disappears.”

solatido@yna.co.kr

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2024/11/01 16:39 Sent