For a long time, the Republican candidate Donald Trump had a clear lead in national surveys over the incumbent US President Joe Biden from the Democrats. Then, after intense public pressure, Biden withdrew from the presidential race. Current Vice President Kamala Harris took his place – and caught up in the polls.
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- The following graphics provide a picture of the predictions before the election.
- From November 5th you will find all official results of the 2024 US election here.
At the end of the article:
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US election 2024
Donald Trump or Kamala Harris – who will succeed Joe Biden as US President in the White House? Stay informed about all developments – on our topic page.
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How meaningful are the surveys?
National approval ratings for the presidential candidates come from the website FiveThirtyEight. These are average values from the individual results of several survey institutes. Poll aggregators like RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight average the many individual results to smooth out random fluctuations. These average values are more meaningful than individual surveys. But these are not precise predictions either: many institutes underestimate the same candidate, and this also affects the averaged values.
However, past elections have shown that surveys and forecasts have only limited informative value, especially in the United States. On the day of the 2016 election, the US polling institutes outdid each other with probabilities that Hillary Clinton would win a big victory for the Democrats over Donald Trump – as we all know, the outcome was different.
In 2020, the election was also closer than predicted. However, the result was correctly predicted: Joe Biden won more than the 270 electoral votes required for the presidency.
As of announcement: Results of the 2024 US election in the states
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The election on November 5th will also determine the balance of power in the US Congress (House of Representatives and Senate). The results can be found here as soon as they are announced:
Information about the election process and counting
schedule
– January 15 to June 8, 2024: Area codes in US states and foreign territories
– July 15 to 18, 2024: Republican nomination convention
– August 19 to 22, 2024: Democratic nomination convention
– November 5, 2024: Election Day (US population votes)
– December 17, 2024: Electoral College votes
– January 6, 2025: Official announcement of the election results in Congress
– January 20, 2025: Inauguration Day (inauguration in Washington, DC)
When do the polling stations close?
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- The closing times of polling stations vary depending on the state, but sometimes also within a state. Most polling stations close between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. local time. Due to the time difference, it will be the middle of the night or early in the morning in Germany on November 6th when the first (provisional) results will be announced. An overview of the times in each state is shown in the following table:
Was sind Electoral Votes?
- In order to win the presidential election, a candidate needs a majority of the 538 electors. In the USA, these are called Electoral Votes. The citizens do not vote directly for the candidate, but for representatives who then cast their votes in the so-called Electoral College. As a rule, they are bound to the vote from their home state.
- The number of electors that a state sends to the Electoral College depends on the state’s total number of senators and representatives in the House of Representatives. States with fewer populations send fewer voters, and states with larger populations send more voters. In most states, the “winner takes all” principle applies – the winner gets all the electors in the state. Exceptions are Nebraska and Maine, where electors are divided by congressional district.
When will the result of the US election be known?
- The first forecasts will be published on election evening based on projections and counted votes. However, these are preliminary results.
- It can take several days to weeks until the official final result is known. This depends on the speed of the counting, especially through postal votes and the regulations in the individual states. Many states have deadlines for certifying results that can be up to two weeks after the election.
- At the 2020 presidential election It took several days until it was possible to say with certainty who had won the race for the last decisive states. The election in 2020 took place on November 3rd, and it was not until November 7th that Joe Biden was determined as the election winner.
Why is it so difficult to predict the outcome of the US election?
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- On the one hand, many forecasts are based on surveys, which in turn are only a snapshot of people’s possible voting behavior.
- On the other hand, the US electoral system makes predictions even more difficult: a candidate who receives more votes overall does not necessarily win the majority of electoral votes. Because it makes no difference whether a state is won with a clear or narrow majority: in both cases, he or she receives the votes of all electors, the amount of which varies depending on the state.
- In 2016, almost three million more people voted for Clinton than Trump – she won the so-called popular vote, meaning she got more votes in absolute numbers than the Republican. However, the US Democrat lost the so-called Electoral Vote – i.e. the votes of the electors. In the end, Clinton only got 227 electoral votes, while Trump got 304 electoral votes and became president.
Why did the counting in the 2020 election take so long?
- There is no uniform format for elections in the USA – individual states have their own regulations when it comes to counting votes. In some states it is allowed to count postal votes as soon as they arrive. In other states this is only allowed on election day.
- In 2020 there was a particularly high number of postal votes. Democratic voters make disproportionate use of this method of voting – this makes it difficult to predict the winner as long as the postal votes are not counted or only they are initially counted. Four years ago, Joe Biden was initially clearly ahead in some states after the postal votes were counted, but his lead later shrank. In 2020, the proportion of people who voted by post was particularly high due to the corona pandemic.
- In addition, states also have different rules as to when a mail-in ballot must arrive at the polling station. Some states will only accept ballots that arrive at the polling place no later than Election Day. In other states, the ballot can arrive by mail days later – as long as it was postmarked by Election Day at the latest. This also delays the counting.
