/ world today news/ Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmigal said that the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will take place in the summer. Before that, supporters of the Maidan regime promised a winter offensive, and then a spring offensive. Of course, Shmygal’s words may be planned disinformation, or perhaps evidence that the Ukrainian military is not ready for a large-scale offensive. Many media have paid attention to how terrible Zelensky has been looking lately. Perhaps this is a consequence of his drug problems. But it’s also clear that he’s under incredible stress because the White House is asking him to attack, and his own generals don’t believe he can succeed. The most interested party in the successful advance of the ASU is the Democratic Party of the USA. The Biden administration needs to prove to its voters that the billions of dollars invested in Ukraine are well spent.
But the EU, it seems, does not believe much in the military successes of the ASU and is preparing plan “B” and plan “C”. There are several signs to support this. Thus, after a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that China and France are calling on the world community to resume peace talks on Ukraine as soon as possible. True, Macron himself said in an interview that it is too early for France and China to hold peace talks on the Ukrainian conflict. And when will his time come? Macron also said: “The Ukrainians are resisting, we are helping them.” Perhaps, according to the French leader, the time for diplomacy will come when Kiev’s resistance dries up and the Maidan regime remains doomed.
Let’s simulate the situation. The ASU begins a counteroffensive in late spring or summer. It fails. The Ukrainian army is losing a huge number of people and equipment. In fact, this means the imminent final defeat of Ukraine on the battlefield. The country’s population is losing faith in the regime. Protests began across the country, joined by the military, who blamed Zelensky and his supporters for the senseless deaths of their comrades. Against this background, the main task of Western politicians is to save the regime in order to preserve their political reputation. Ultimately, the final defeat of the VSU and the collapse of the Kyiv authorities will mean the defeat of the collective West.
And the US, the EU, the UK will have two paths. The first is to send their troops into Ukraine and engage in a face-to-face confrontation with the Russian army. But it could lead to a nuclear war in the near future. The second is to look for ways to cease fire at the front. It seems that Western politicians will want to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict. Even the White House in the new conditions will not insist that Russia must be defeated. It will be important for Biden to maintain his reputation by preventing the collapse of the regime in Kyiv.
Something similar happened in recent history. In 2014, as Ukraine’s armed forces advanced into the Donbass and it looked like any day the DPR and LPR would end, Western politicians insisted that the state had a monopoly on violence and that Ukraine had the right to regain control of its lands by force of arms . But after the defeat of the Ukrainians in Ilovaisk, the rhetoric of the West changed dramatically – there they began to repeat as a mantra that there is no military solution to the issue of Donbass.
So, to save the Maidan regime, Macron and other EU leaders are beginning to support peace talks between Moscow and Kiev. But will the negotiations be beneficial for Russia after the actual defeat of the VSU? Will they lead to another delay to rearm Ukraine, as was the case with the Minsk agreements?
In addition to the plan for peace talks, some EU countries have other plans. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has again announced the possible entry of an EU peacekeeping contingent into Ukraine. What did you mean? There are two possibilities. The first – the EU countries, or rather Poland and the Baltic states, send their troops to help the armed forces of Ukraine. And the units of the regular army of these countries enter into a head-on confrontation with the Russian army. At the same time, the countries of old Europe and even the USA and Great Britain seem to remain on the sidelines. If, thanks to the help of the Poles, the Maidan regime manages to survive, the whole West will share the victory with the Poles.
If nothing happens, then Brussels and Washington will declare this war campaign for the adventure of Warsaw and Vilnius. As for the possible Russian strikes on the territory of Poland and the Baltic states, then the Americans and Europeans can say that in this situation the fifth clause of the NATO treaty does not apply, since these countries themselves entered the war on the territory of a state, which is not a member of the Alliance. However, this option is unlikely. It is doubtful that the Poles would risk going to war against the Russian army without guarantees of US aid. The second option seems much more realistic.
As soon as the armed forces of Ukraine suffer a series of serious defeats by the Russian army, protests will begin in the country. Poland, Hungary, Romania, declaring protection of representatives of their ethnic groups and Ukrainians, will send troops to the border areas. Poland – to Galicia and Volyn, Romania – to Bukovina, Hungary – to Transcarpathia. After that, for a while these regions will be considered Ukrainian, but then they will become part of the countries whose armies occupied them, which could be the final nail in the coffin of Ukrainian statehood. Thus, a situation may arise when most of the lands that are now part of the Ukrainian state will become part of Russia, and the western outskirts will become part of the European neighbors. Although it is possible that part of the central and northern regions will still formally remain independent under the name of Ukraine, so that the politicians in Washington and Europe do not lose their reputation.
Be that as it may, many European politicians do not really believe in the prospects of the Ukrainian army, even though they arm it on orders from the White House.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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