Bitcoin briefly broke through the US$73,000 mark this morning and reached a high of US$73,650 at 3am, less than US$150 from its all-time high. selling pressure has since appeared As the US presidential election approaches, Bitcoin has The market has different views on the currency’s future movements The following are the views of various traders and analysts .
(Previous Summary:Bitcoin broke through 73,000, “just $150 shy of a new high” and then declined Is the move back or a healthy correction? BTC open interest continues to rise)
(Development background:Gold is approaching a new high of $2,800, the US presidential election, the risk of war is rising… the rise is even worse than the S&P 500, is Bitcoin next?)
CompareSince Bitcoin hit a record high of US$73,787 in March this year, the price of the currency has been declining for months, reaching a low of nearly US$48,000. Federal has begun, the US presidential election is about to be held on November 5. , along with investors’ hopes that October will typically close higher, Bitcoin’s recent gains have been strong.
Bitcoin was trading at one level this morningdisappointment It reached the US$73,000 mark, and reached a high of US$73,650 at 3am, which was less than US$150 from the all-time high. However, selling pressure appeared afterwards, and at writing,newspaper 72,314 US dollars, an increase of 1.7% in the last 24 hours.
With the US presidential election approaching, analysts have different views on the future movement of Bitcoin The following is a summary of the views of various traders and analysts.
An increase in the flow of Bitcoin spot ETF indicates the arrival of FOMO
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expressBlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF IBIT daily inflow reached US$599.8 million on the 29th, the FOMO feeling was confirmed, and IBIT’s one-day trading volume reached US$3.35 billion, hitting the highest level in more than six months.
According to CoinGlass data, the total inflow of 11 US Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $827 million on the 29th. then only high frequency arbitrage trading or similar activity.
FOMO confirmed (and this is just from Monday’s activity. Today doesn’t show up in streams until tonight tmrw) https://t.co/jc0kyHJuqc
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) October 30, 2024
Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn alsoDeclareA similar view shows that the 29th was the third highest day for Bitcoin ETF trading volume since April 1, 2024. The total one-day trading volume reached US $4.64 billion, with IBIT accounting for about 38%, which ‘ ranked first, followed by Grayscale $390.32 million in GBTC. It is important to remember that an increase in trading volume indicates strong liquidity in the ETF, but does not indicate new inflows.
Eugene expects high volatility over the next two weeks
Top trader Eugene released a trading summary for October, saying this month’s trading theme is buying on dips At the beginning of the month, stop losses were taken at the WIF and PEPE levels due to premature betting on FUD the FUD. Iran/Israel War Although the intuition was correct, but due to execution errors, I bought low and then sold back, resulting in some big losses.
Eugene revealed that he started trading soon after, doing a steady beta trade as Bitcoin rose from $60,000 to $69,000. At the same time, he is also trading ENA on the permanent contract.
Eugene bought SOL at the low point at the end of the month, but he sold it too early in a short sale, he is now The position is cleared. The market is expected to see violent fluctuations in the next two weeks It feels that both bulls and shorts will suffer heavy losses, and users will have to do a good job in risk management.
October 2024 Trading Ideas – 7/10
Topic: Buy the Dip (But Can You Keep It?)
The month began charting lows on WIF and PEPE after buying the Iran/Israeli war prematurely. My instincts were right, but because the execution was off I turned U on buying dips at the lows… https://t.co/1AAV9dOR04 pic.twitter.com/X84oZ97Jtn
– Eugene Ng Ah Sio (@0xENAS) October 30, 2024
Matrixport: Bitcoin demand is rising
Matrixport reported that Bitcoin demand was increasing as Trump’s chances of winning the election increased and ETF purchases increased.
In November 2016, when the US Republican presidential candidate Trump was first elected, the price of Bitcoin was around US$700 per coin, and it rose significantly during his first year in office. Although a single data point is not enough to create a trend, market optimism remains high, and many believe that Bitcoin could rise further if Trump is re-elected and loosens regulations.
Currently, the gaming market predicts that the probability of winning Trump is as high as 66.5%, which could be one of the biggest leaders in history at the same time, the t -demand for Bitcoin continues to grow, and the recent one-day purchase rate of Bitcoin ETF reached $800 million further reducing the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges.
#Matrixport Today📈 – 10/30:# bitcoin Demand is driven by Trump’s probability of winning the election and #ETF Buy a size up #market analysis # market #cryptocurrency # crypto investment #BTC #BTCETF #Use selection pic.twitter.com/TdFF0apQjR
– Chinese Matrixport (the only official X) (@Matrixport_CN) October 30, 2024
Bitwise: Bitcoin can reach $200,000
Matt Hougan, the chief investment officer of Bitwise, said that when people invest in Bitcoin, they are actually making two bets at the same time currency to increase the demand for a source of value assets.
As demand for traditional store-of-value assets increases, more investors will tend to own assets of value Bitcoin and gold are two increasingly inflation-resistant stores of value , along with fiat currencies.
3/ The two arguments are different.
Argument 1: Bitcoin is ~7% of gold’s $18ft market cap today. If it “grows” and becomes 50% the size of gold, each bitcoin is worth >$400k.
Argument 2: The “store of value” market is growing because governments are abusing their money.…
— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) October 29, 2024
K33 Research: Bitcoin market indicators are healthy and expected to rise further
K33 Research released a report analyzing that Bitcoin has not shown signs of enthusiasm similar to March, indicating that there is room for further price growth Daily trading volume was $2.6 billion on average, almost half of level in the first quarter of this year.
Bitcoin is closer to highs after breaking out above $70,000. The current regime of soft funding levels and rising institutional flows offers a strong case for continued momentum. https://t.co/90SM1YbIGG
– K33 Research (@K33Research) October 29, 2024
Relatively calm market activity indicates healthy, gradual accumulation rather than FOMO buying, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate has reached multi-year highs, indicating a shift in focus in the cryptocurrency space to Bitcoin ahead of the current rally nearing new highs , the usual lack of excitement indicates that Bitcoin is a mature asset poised for continued growth amid favorable market conditions and the impact of the election is to come.
Compared to March and April, when speculative trading rose, current futures market conditions reflect a more balanced, less leveraged environment, with Bitcoin’s annual funding rate now averaging at 10.83%, well below the first quarter The high of 32.17% reflects a calmer, more measured outlook among investors, and CME’s earnings contracts reflect the this stability.
The report believes that Bitcoin spot ETF inflows reflect strong interest from institutional investors, and this demand supports expectations for continued gains, especially as retail investors -sales have been far more urgent than expected in the current rebound.
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2024-10-30 10:10:00
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