Therefore, the process of selecting the leadership of PASoK-KINAL has been completed after a prolonged election period, which began on the night of the European elections on June 9 and ended with the renewal of the presidential term of Mr. Androulakis on Sunday, October 13, 2024. These about a hundred days of intra-party campaigning could have been disastrous for PASOK-KINAL, but it turned out to be quite refreshing and basically generated positive publicity for the party, also helping the timing of SYRIZA’s collapse.
The next day shows that there is indeed an important political opportunity for PaSoK-KINAL. Not only does it stabilize in second place (at least in the polls), but it also further increases its performance. In the climate of “euphoria” the following day, he sees the vote estimate reaching 20% and despite being still far (almost ten points) from the performance of New Democracy, which moves above 29%, it creates an image of the resumption of the party system in conditions of bipolarity (which may potentially develop into bipartisanship), as long as PaSoK-KINAL manages to continue its upward trajectory and does not exhaust itself in the positive impressions of the massive turnout of voters and the election of the two rounds. Besides, in the past, when Mr. Androulakis was first elected to the leadership of the party, he had seen his percentages even exceed 17%, but then he declined gradually and almost linearly.
As far as ND is concerned, there are several points of interest. The first of these is that the government and the Prime Minister have not entered a course of irreversible decay. Instead, they see their performance improving as satisfaction with the government rises from 23% in September to 27% now and the Prime Minister from 27% to 31%. At the same time, in the question about the perceived suitability of political leaders for the prime ministership, Mr. Mitsotakis gathers a percentage of spontaneous reports of 29%, followed by Mr. Velopoulos and Androulakis with 6%.
Of course, this difference, which exceeds 20 percentage points, is also maintained because of the intra-party adventure of SYRIZA, which has been left without a leader for a long time and, above all, it is unclear what will happen next and what will be its future. SYRIZA continues its “low flights” in single digits (in the vote estimation it moves in the region of 9%) and competes with the KKE and the Hellenic Solution for the third place, which is now held by the Hellenic Solution with marginal differences.
During the field investigation, the death of Hamas leader Dominant the public agenda Yahya Sinuarbut also the attack on Benjamin Netanyahu’s country house. Conflicts in the Middle East appear to be expanding and concerns about their effects are growing. The prioritization of problems already shows a sharp rise in concern about Immigration.
At the same time, of course, there is also the Ukrainian front, and thus even a small impression of improvement in Greek-Turkish relations in the future (from 27% in September to 31% now) has a positive sign.
Also, it should not go unnoticed that the social majority has definitely changed compared to the past and seems to be firmly positioned in favor of the country’s participation in NATO with a percentage of 58% (from 56% in September).
The above takes on greater importance after the terrorist attack on 23/10 in Turkey, which shows that peace in our region has entered a test of historic proportions.
The country seems to be balancing on lower levels of optimism in recent months. A series of studies show that the institutional structure needs serious reforms and in particular the party system seems to be the “big patient”, hence its prolonged fluidity.
At the same time, the 2/3 society of the past has given way to the 1/2 society. Half of Greeks (50%) feel “outside the walls” and this is a finding that shows a new “constant”, a feeling of exclusion and insecurity that dominates the lower social strata.
In these circumstances, we believe that the demands of inclusion and national harmony are necessary conditions for the survival of society and the country.
The introversion and self-referentiality of the elites seriously and recklessly mortgages everyone’s future.
Mr. Stratos Fanaras is president & CEO of Metron Analysis SA.
#Scene #resurgence #bipolarity #political #system
