Operation “blue wall”! In this presidential year in the United States, all eyes are on three states in the Great Lakes region – Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – which could seal the fate of the November 5 election by offering victory to Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. The Democrat intends to preserve this “blue wall” which has always smiled on her predecessors, with the exception of Hillary Clinton in 2016, and has not cracked since 1988 (defeat of Michael Dukakis against George H. W. Bush). “These states are linked to each other historically, they have always voted in unison,” explains Tad Devine, Democratic electoral strategist.
In 2020, Joe Biden won the decision by reconquering the three states of the “Rust Belt” [ceinture de rouille, NDLR]bringing back into the Democratic fold some of the “blue collars” (workers) who had voted for Trump four years earlier, seduced by his protectionist speech.
In 2024, Kamala Harris, who already has 225 voters in her bag (out of a required total of 270) can theoretically do without the entire “blue wall”, provided she wins several other key states located in the “Sun Belt”: Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Nevada (6), even North Carolina (16). Donald Trump has no choice: with “only” 219 electors acquired in advance, he must win Pennsylvania and its 19 electors, and is eyeing Michigan (15) as well as Wisconsin (10) .
Poll after poll, the infinitesimal differences seem to predict an election that will be decided by a few thousand votes
“The guys vote”
The Republican camp is convinced: Donald Trump can reconquer not only the “Keystone State”, lost by a hair to Biden, but also Wisconsin and Michigan. This near certainty is based on the new loyalty of the working class vote towards it, reinforced by significant gains among young, white, Latino and black men. The Republican campaign is betting big on this “bro vote” [le « vote des mecs »].
Among Democrats, anxiety is increasing. Despite the wave of enthusiasm raised by the nomination of Kamala Harris on July 21 and an overwhelming confidence in the final victory against a disoriented, surly, incoherent Donald Trump, the candidate finds herself neck and neck with her opponent.
Poll after poll, the infinitesimal differences seem to predict an election that will be decided by a few thousand votes. “It will be very tight, maybe within 1 or 2%” in these three key states, opines Matt Barreto, political scientist and pollster at the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA). Kamala Harris “drains impressive crowds and huge amounts of volunteers, she is well positioned, but there is still a lot of work to do”.
Kamala Harris supported by Michelle Obama in Kalamazoo, Michigan, on October 26.
AFP
The Trump temptation among African-Americans
At the heart of Democratic concerns, Michigan combines sources of vulnerability. A few tens of thousands of voters of Arab-Muslim origin could be missed because of the Biden administration’s resolute support for Israel. Catholics, divided on Harris because of her positions on abortion and the thorny transgender issue, see Trump in a more favorable light since the first failed assassination attempt against him on July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania.
In Novi, Michigan, local Muslim community leaders stood in support of Donald Trump on stage during a campaign rally at the Suburban Collection Showplace.
AFP
“Democrats are in trouble, and there’s nothing solid about this blue wall right now.”
In large cities such as Detroit, young blacks aged 18-30 also give it a more favorable reception, to the point that Barack Obama felt obliged to denounce rampant sexism among African-Americans, who are reluctant to support the presidential ambitions of a mixed-race woman.
Finally, this election will be weighed by the presence of a third candidate in the person of the ecologist Jill Stein, who was not present on the electoral lists in 2020 but had contributed to the defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 by gleaning 51 463 votes in Michigan, 31,006 in Wisconsin, a gap greater than the Trump-Clinton differential.
A breathtaking finale
“Soon we will be talking about a red wall,” says Brian Schimming, chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin. I recognize that the race is very close, no doubt about it. But Democrats are in trouble, and there’s nothing solid about that blue wall right now. »
This great uncertainty suggests an increasingly credible scenario as the last days of an interminable campaign, launched last January in a snowstorm in Iowa, tick by: in 2024, the blue wall could well crack and let Trump steal one or even two states, thus reshuffling the cards in the final count of the electors. The finale, on Tuesday November 5, promises to be breathtaking.
