The best time to turn on a mutual to buy a house?
Even in this case the proverb “better the egg today…” is somewhat valid.
And the reason is easy to say.
After the three cuts of the essays made by Bce for a total of 0.75%, the installment of the products a fixed rate has recovered by almost 50% compared to the lows at the end of 2021/beginning of 2022, while that of variable rate products has recovered by no more than 10%, and therefore may fall further, probably for the whole of 2025.
The bad news, however, is that today the variable rate is decidedly more expensive than the fixed rate, 4.23% versus the nominal annual rate of the two types of 2.80%.
Assuming that the variable completes the entire journey (a drop in rates of 1% is estimated between now and the end of 2025) and therefore no new inflationary surges, geopolitical tensions and other negative factors occur, at that point it would be even more expensive than fixed-rate mortgages. current fixed rate.
So why wait?
And this is not to mention that the latter also offer the guarantee of a stable rate for the entire duration of the mortgage, whatever happens.
The reasoning behind these statements is complex but worth doing.
In figures, according to the calculations of the Facile.it Study Center, the monthly fixed installment, calculated on a mortgage of 126 thousand euros (the average amount requested by Italians) with loan to value of 70% and duration of 25 years, it went from a minimum of 480 euros to a maximum of 665 euros recorded in October 2023, gradually falling to 584 euros today.
Compared to an overall increase of 185 euros, he has therefore already recovered 81 euros, almost 45%.
In the same period, the installment of a variable rate mortgage went from a minimum of 406 euros to a maximum of 748 euros, and has now returned to 714 euros.
Compared to an overall increase of 342 euros per month, today it has recovered only 34 euros, just over 10% even if, as Facile.it underlines, today’s values do not fully discount the latest very recent cut of 0.25%. by the ECB.
Already at the beginning of 2025, futures estimate a rate of 4.02% and an installment of 666 euros for indexed mortgages.
For the end of 2025, however, the same futures estimate a decrease of a further 1% in interest rates, probably achieved through three or four interventions by the ECB, a decrease which would bring the Tan of indexed mortgages to 3.17%, corresponding to an installment of 609 euros per month, however increasingly more expensive compared to the 584 euros per month that are paid today for the same mortgage but at a fixed rate.
