General Giuseppe Morabito member of the Directorate of the NATO Defense College – The Israeli Air Force‘s long-awaited attack on Iran has been remarkably successful. With three waves, the Israeli Air Force not only struck key missile and air defense targets in Iran, but also demonstrated its ability to dominate the skies across the Middle East, targeting Tehran if determined.
International assessments are, however, very vague, as the outcome of the relatively limited Israeli response needs to be analyzed in the near future. Some analysts, considering that the Israeli reaction was coordinated with Washington, expect that this could be a significant signal from Israel to the extremist Shia leadership in Iran that it is not willing to accept a deal. Iran’s current reactions are also very moderate, indicating a possible desire by Tehran not to add further fuel to the fire.
The reactions coming from Iranian officials are very cold. In a statement released by the Iranian military, the latter said that the Israeli attacks only damaged the radar systems, without really affecting the capabilities of the entire armed forces. Tehran also reiterated that most of the Israeli attacks were thwarted by the country’s air defenses. The foregoing appears only in favor of internal propaganda so as not to weaken the image of the Iranian government,
Other more reliable sources, however, confirmed that the Israeli attacks were very successful, hitting major radar sites, anti-aircraft missile systems and several primary Iranian drone and missile factories.
Understated, but at the same time crucial, is that the Israeli Air Force was able (or received permission) to fly over the Arab airspace of at least two countries (Jordan-Saudi Arabia) or even three or more (Iraq, Syria ) to strike Iran without being hindered or suffering problems while entering the airspace of the aforementioned countries. This last fact is important when considering the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Shia terrorist groups Hezbollah and Hamas. This conflict saw the support of Iraqi militias, Syrian forces and the Houthis but also clearly shows the strength of the Israeli air force. Some American sources have indicated that Israel was most likely able to use US-controlled areas in Iraq and at the same time use data provided by US radars and satellites. At the same time, the Israeli Air Force supposedly destroyed air defenses on the way to Iran in Syria and Iraq, and in Iran the S-300/S-400 radars (the same ones that Turkey purchased from Russia) . News has also emerged that Israel has struck Iranian ballistic missile fuel factories, certainly delaying their development for years. The latest information indicates that the targeted sites are essential to Iran’s missile operations and the development and enhancement of ballistic missiles and drones (many of which are sent to the Russian military).
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said: “Iran has the right to self-defense and considers itself entitled and obliged to defend itself against acts of foreign aggression.” Araghchi also reiterated that Iran “has no limits” in defending its interests. However, surprisingly, the Iranian military has already declared that any Iranian retaliatory attack could be stopped by a ceasefire in Israeli ground offensives in Gaza and Lebanon.
However, it would seem unlikely that there will be a positive reaction from Israel, since those who know the theater of combat agree that a ceasefire at the moment leaves Israel no advantage, until Hezbollah is neutralized or the hostages released .
Looking at another point of view in the current situation, there are no signs that this Israeli military move is a sign of a toned down or contained military operation. There are many doubts about the assumptions of some experts and international media who say that Israel’s moderate action could even lead to a possible opening to establish a ceasefire or even a solution to end the conflict between Iran and its “ terrorist proxies” and Israel.
Energy markets are reporting once again that there is no real geopolitical fallout for crude oil and natural gas (LNG) markets or prices, as Israel has not attacked any nuclear or energy sites in Iran. In summary, oil prices on Monday are likely to be subdued.
In essence, the main objective of the entire Israeli strategy (which perhaps should also be the Western one) is to put an end not only to the threats of terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, but also to eliminate the Iranian threat and Tehran’s influence in the whole region. To cut off the head of the Serpent (the regime of the Iranian mullahs), it is necessary to first neutralize Hamas and Hezbollah (the role of the Houthis is not even taken into consideration, since they do not pose an existential threat to Israel).
When confronting the Iranian military to remove the financier and brains of the Axis of Resistance, any military operation looks first and foremost at removing the main threat to Israeli forces inside Iran. The military operation of recent days concerns, in fact, only air defense systems, radar operational capabilities and the industrial base for drones and rockets. Initial data shows that these were the targets that were not only hit but also destroyed with no Israeli casualties. The fact that the Israeli Air Force was able not only to hit all targets, but to do so with almost impunity, surprised not only the Iranians but probably also Israel itself.
Expecting the IDF’s latest actions to represent the end of Israel’s strategic plan for Iran is most likely an underestimation of the Israeli government’s commitment to Iran. Even as Arab countries call for an end to the conflict between Iran and Israel, it cannot be forgotten that Israeli actions cannot reach Iran without crossing the Arab world. Riyadh, Manama, Doha and Abu Dhabi are also concerned that Iran could retaliate not only against Israeli targets, but also strike Arab oil and gas infrastructure at the same time. Assessments that the Arabian Gulf powers are trying to calm Iran are based on incorrect assumptions or out of reality. The Arab armed forces understand that they are currently unable to resist any Iranian action, at least not without admitting that they need the United States and other Western allies. Riyadh, Abu Dhabi or Doha, moving closer to Moscow and Beijing, know that both sides are unwilling and unable to protect Arab interests.
Militarily, the advantage is clear, as the Israeli Air Force has absolute air supremacy and can decide which targets are to its liking. Claiming that the confrontation with Iran is now over or even that the conflict is resolved is illusory and it is clear that a next target would be Iran’s hydrocarbon infrastructure and nuclear plants. There are those who think that waiting too long would give an advantage to hard-line extremists in Iran who could accelerate their nuclear program.
Jerusalem understands that Trump and Harris are not willing, these days, to lose votes and power by constraining the Israelis too much.
However, hitting Iran was also an advantage for Western interests in Ukraine (Iranian drones will have a setback regarding supplies to Moscow) or even for People’s China (not hitting ports with oil terminals – Iranian gas allows Beijing to continue to supply itself with energy sources vital to its economy, which is no longer thriving today).
caption: General Giuseppe Morabito member of the Directorate of the NATO Defense College
