Mexico City. Citibanamex announced that it marginally increased its economic growth estimate for this year and went from 1.3 to 1.4 percent.
The new projection, reported the financial institution, is presented even though the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported this morning that national activity contracted in August and slowed down compared to the same month of 2023, after three consecutive months rise.
“Given the improved outlook for the third quarter as a whole, we now estimate GDP growth of 1.4 percent in 2024 (1.3 percent previously), up from 3.2 percent expansion in 2023. For 2025 we maintain our estimate of a more moderate growth, of 0.8 percent,” said the institution.
In a timely note, released after the publication of the Global Indicator of Economic Activity by Inegi, the economic studies area of Citibanamex reported that economic activity in August was in line with its estimates, registering a decline after the expansion of July.
He specified that, in recent months, industrial production has shown a slowdown, as construction begins to lose dynamism, and the manufacturing industry remains practically stagnant although “with some incipient recovery.”
He clarified that services show a slight growth trend, below that observed between 2022 and until the third quarter of 2023.
“Despite the decline in August, considering the information as of September, the performance of the third quarter as a whole would be slightly better than previously anticipated, given a certain recovery in manufacturing and resilience in construction at the margin,” the financial institution added.
In this sense, he explained that they now estimate a quarterly growth of 0.8 percent for the GDP for the third quarter of the year, while the previous projection was 0.5 percent; while for the last quarter of the year, activity is expected to stagnate.
“The above, as the expansion of the US economy loses traction, public spending continues to contract, conditions in the labor market relax, real interest rates remain high, and high levels of political uncertainty negatively affect investment decisions. “Citibanamex added.
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