The economist and director of OJF & Asociados, Orlando Ferreres
The economist Orlando Ferreres He set a date for the exit of the exchange rate and assured that the exchange market could be unified between next December and February 2025. However, he warned that this would require a significant accumulation of reserves to avoid an unforeseen demand for dollars.
“Although the Government was not very inclined to consider that the stocks were something that had to be eliminated quickly, I believe that As long as the stocks are not eliminated, investments will not arrive either, because if the money cannot be withdrawn, it is difficult for it to enter.“explained the specialist.
In dialogue with Infobaethe director of OJF & Asociados He said that more reserves have to be accumulated because, once the stocks are lifted, there could be an unexpected demand for foreign currency that generates a very complicated situation for the Executive.
Net reserves should be positive by at least USD 10 billion, which they do not yet have
“That is why they are postponing exchange rate unification. Net reserves should be positive by at least USD 10 billion, which they do not have yet. But between December and the first months of next year it could be lifted, taking into account that money laundering is increasing deposits in dollars and that there could be more loans in that currency for large companies. The currency market is moving a little more,” he assured.
The government, however, avoids giving temporal details of when the stocks could be released and even the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, He cites the cases of Chile in the second half of the 80s, South Korea for almost 20 years and China, which for 25 years grew “at Chinese rates” as examples that “you can grow with stocks.”
According to Ferreres, net reserves should be positive by at least USD 10,000 million to lift the stocks (Photo: Shutterstock)
It should be noted that although the debt maturities for 2025 are close to USD 20,000 million, although the part in the hands of private creditors would be approximately half of that sum, the Government is receiving foreign currency that allows it to increase reserves through other means. , in addition to laundering. For example, from the Treasury Palace they confirmed that the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the World Bank will grant Argentina financing for USD 8.8 billion.
Likewise, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, He stated that the Repo with a consortium of banks to pay capital maturities in January. The entities would be Santander and JP Morgan, although others could join. In total it would be a 3-year loan for USD 3,000 million. Also, there is a possibility of extending the swap with China for 5 billion dollars until June 2030.
Ferreres believes that The elimination of the stocks would not include any additional regulation of the flow of capital, although export duties, better known as withholdings, and the settlement of foreign currency by the Central Bank would be maintained.
However, there is concern about the loss of reserves that outbound tourism is generating, a result of the lowering of the dollar. According to what this media learned, once the PAIS tax ends in December, the Government would be analyzing applying a surcharge to the dollar card as of a greater perception of Profits or Personal Assets.
One point to keep in mind is that exchange rate unification can generate an increase in inflation and that is why Ferreres projects higher inflation for next year – around 32% – than the 18% that the Government expects, according to what is reflected in the 2025 budget project. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund ( IMF) estimates that the general price level will be 45%.
According to the IMF, inflation would reach 45% in 2025 (Sarah Pabst/Bloomberg)
On the other hand, regarding the situation of industry and construction, which show slight rebounds but are still sectors that are hit, Ferreres said that they will be reactivated due to consumption, which would increase due to an increase in salaries and real retirements. , and to a lesser extent, by export. At the same time, he considered that there will not be many investments that generate greater demand for employment. “There will be more activity and possibly more occupancy, but with the same installed capacity as there is today. It is not necessary to invest a lot to be able to maintain the 4% production rate that we estimate for 2025,” said the economist.
And he maintained that there would be a lack of any advantage for SMEs, similar to RIGI. So far there is nothing concrete in this regard but the Government’s intention is to provide incentive benefits to more sectors. In this sense, the Chief of Staff Guillermo Francosat the opening of the 5th Industrial Congress of the National Consensus on Labor and Production, stated: “I understand the meaning of an SME law, the search to reduce taxes, which is what we have done through the RIGI. What the Government seeks is for there to be a RIGI for all business and productive activity. That SME companies also have these options.”
