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Annual greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, up 1.3% last year. If we do not reduce these emissions by 9% each year until 2030, we will not be able to avoid the worst of climate change. Current policies lead us towards a catastrophic increase in the planet’s average temperature of 3.1 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, well above the 1.5 degree warming agreed in the Paris Agreement.
Annual greenhouse gas emissions have reached an unprecedented level and urgent action is needed to prevent catastrophic temperature spikes and avoid the worst effects of climate change, according to a UN Emissions Gap Report 2024, published on Thursday by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).
Annual greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, up 1.3% last year. Emissions would need to fall by 9% each year until 2030 to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoid the worst of climate change, but current policies put us on track for a catastrophic temperature rise of 3.1 degrees Celsius at the end of the century.
The report admits that “to date there is little confidence in the implementation of these net zero commitments.”
“The moment of truth has arrived,” declared Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).
“We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before, starting right now, before the next round of climate commitments,” he said.
Otherwise, he warned, the goal of keeping the earth’s average temperature 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times to curb rising temperatures set in the Paris Agreement on climate change “will soon be dead, and “very much the increase of 2 degrees Celsius will take its place in the intensive care unit.”
Climate goals could evaporate
Presented at the COP16 global biodiversity conference in Cali, Colombia, the report tracks the gap between projected global emissions and those that would need to occur to limit warming to 1.5 degrees.
According to the report, that goal will disappear within a few years unless nations collectively commit to reducing annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 in their national plans.
Those plans outline measures to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts, from droughts, floods and extreme weather events, securing the necessary funding and updating targets every five years. The next round of making new national commitments will be in early 2025, before the COP30 climate talks in Brazil.
The tightrope of the planet
If greenhouse gas emissions are not drastically reduced, the world could face an inevitable and catastrophic temperature rise of 3.1 degrees, according to the report, which comes at a time when governments are not fully meeting their promises.
UN Secretary General António Guterres stated that there is a direct relationship between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters.
“We are teetering on a planetary tightrope,” he warned in a video message, released after the annual report. “Either leaders close the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into a climate disaster, in which the poorest and most vulnerable will suffer the most.”
Affordable technologies can help
The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29), which will begin in November in Baku, Azerbaijan, should serve as a launching pad for a detailed discussion of these ambitious new national plans, he said, noting that the event “puts “The clock is ticking for countries to present new national climate action plans before next year.”
“Governments have agreed to align these plans with 1.5 degrees,” he said.
This means they must reduce all greenhouse gas emissions across the entire economy, driving progress across all sectors, he said, urging the largest economies, the G20 members responsible for around 80% of all emissions, to lead this process.
There is hope, the UN official stressed.
“Today’s report shows that existing, affordable technologies can achieve the emissions reductions we need through 2030 and 2035 to meet the 1.5 degree limit, but only with increased ambition and support,” he said.
Forest conservation could provide around 20% of the necessary reductions in both years.
Clean energy can change the trajectory
The report shows significant potential to reduce emissions by up to 31 gigatonnes of CO₂ by 2030, translating to around 52% of recorded emissions in 2023, and 41 gigatonnes by 2035, helping to meet the target of 1. 5 for both years.
Boosting the use of solar photovoltaic and wind energy could contribute to 27% of the total reduction in 2030 and 38% in 2035. In addition, forest conservation could contribute around 20% of the necessary reductions in both years.
According to the report, other effective strategies are improving energy efficiency, electrifying various sectors and transitioning away from fossil fuels in buildings, transport and industry.
However, the report states that realizing even a fraction of this potential will require unprecedented international cooperation and a comprehensive approach by governments, focused on maximizing socio-economic and environmental benefits while minimizing trade-offs.
