<a href="https://www.world-today-news.com/iran-supreme-leader-claims-israel-defeated-in-war-against-hamas-cnn-indonesia/" title="Iran Supreme Leader Claims Israel Defeated in War Against Hamas: CNN Indonesia”>Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran on Saturday morning marked the beginning of a new and more dangerous phase in the two countries’ long-running conflict, but it appears, at least for now, to be stopping short of sparking an all-out war.
In a new development that marks a change of attitude on its part, the New York Times reports, Israel has publicly acknowledged for the first time that it has conducted a military operation inside Iran, after years of maintaining a strategic silence about assassinations and acts of sabotage on Iranian soil. It is also one of the rare times since the war with Iraq in the 1980s that Iran has come under air attack.
Although this is a pivotal moment in the conflict between the two long-time enemies, the attack – at this stage – did not escalate Tehran’s rhetoric of retaliation. Fears that two countries with the most powerful armies in the Middle East will be involved in an uncontrolled military conflict are thus allayed.
“Years of shadow warfare have given way to open conflict – albeit a manageable conflict, for now,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, who specializes in Iran at the European Council on Foreign Relations, a Berlin-based think tank. “Tehran can accept these strikes against military installations, without retaliation that would provoke further Israeli reaction,” she adds.
In addition, after several weeks of pressure from the United States not to launch a broad attack, Israel refrained from striking sensitive nuclear facilities and refineries in retaliation for Iran’s barrage of ballistic missile attacks on Israel in early October. .
So in the early hours of Saturday, Israel’s warplanes focused on targeting about 20 military installations, including air defense arrays, radar stations and missile production facilities, according to Israeli officials.
The limited attack allowed the Iranian establishment to project a sense of normalcy on Saturday morning. The country’s Civil Aviation Authority reopened Iran’s airspace and state news agencies broadcast images and footage of daily life returning to normal.
All are signs, analysts say, that Iran’s leadership is trying to play down the significance of Israel’s attack and lower expectations at home of a major Iranian response.
“This is the beginning of a new phase, a dangerous phase, with many sensitive parameters,” said Yoel Guzansky, an Israel expert on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv-based think tank.
As a result, he notes, “it is possible for both sides to close this round at least and not see Iranian retaliation – or if we do, it will be small-scale.”
But analysts warn that even if the latest escalation subsides, it has taken Iran and Israel one more step down a path of unmanageable conflict.
For years, the two countries clashed in a shadow war in which each side undermined the other’s interests and provided support to the other’s adversaries, while rarely taking responsibility for its own attacks.
That covert conflict turned into open confrontation when war broke out last year between Israel and Hamas, Iran’s ally in Gaza.
After the Hamas-led attack on Israel last October that resulted in Israel launching a devastating war on Gaza, Iran’s proxies in the Middle East, including Hezbollah, began striking Israel in solidarity with the Palestinian group.
Israel has since escalated its attacks on Iran’s allies in the region, leading to direct exchanges of hostilities between the two countries, first in April and now in October.
According to the New York Times, some analysts worry that Israel, while relatively subdued on Saturday, is setting the stage for a bigger blowback after the US presidential election in early November.
The presidential election will set in motion a power transition in which Washington’s influence and attention to the Iran-Israel conflict will diminish.
By destroying Iran’s air defenses and radar system, Israel opened the way for its fighters to attack Iran in the future, a move that could either prevent Tehran from responding forcefully or encourage Israel to launch further attacks.
“Right now there is a sigh of relief across Iran and the region that the US has managed to contain Netanyahu for now,” Ms Geranmayeh said, referring to the Israeli prime minister.
“But the fear is that this is a temporary restriction leading up to the US election. We may see new Israeli attacks inside Iran – a golden opportunity to further exhaust Iranian capabilities.”
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