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The situation on the labor market could become significantly worse in the future. The first signs are evident with regard to the unemployment figures.
Berlin – Unless the Federal Employment Agency recently presented the current unemployment figures, the topic of unemployment in Germany does not occupy a particularly large place. On the other hand, the shortage of skilled workers and staff shortages are much more present. An analysis of the magazine Spiegel According to this, however, this might be too short-sighted.
Despite demographic change, the number of unemployed is continually increasing. In 2022 the rate was still 5.3 percent. The Federal Employment Agency and the Federal Government assume that it will rise to 5.9 percent this year. According to the analysis, demographic change also conceals the exact situation on the labor market.
The number of unemployed could rise even further in the future. (Symbolic image) © Hauke-Christian Dittrich/dpa
Rising unemployment even as baby boomers retire
The fact that unemployment rose so significantly from 2022 to 2024 is particularly remarkable with regard to the baby boomer generation. Employees in the baby boomer generation are increasingly retiring. If the ones in the Interest go, others could actually move up. However, the profiles of companies and job seekers often do not match – for example in terms of qualifications or location.
If as many people continued to flow into the labor market as in the past decades, the unemployment rate would probably be significantly higher, he concludes Spiegel. With the exception of the Corona years, the number of employed people has risen continuously since 2006, as data from the Federal Statistical Office show. However, the truth is that more and more companies want to cut jobs.
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Companies are cutting jobs – the German economy is in recession
Among the companies that have announced cuts are also traditional companies and those from sectors that are traditionally strong in Germany. For example, the chemical company BASF, the steel producer Thyssenkrupp or the car manufacturer Volkswagen. At the end of September, a report caused a stir, according to which VW could cut up to 30,000 jobs. That would correspond to one in four positions in the group in Germany.
VW itself responded that the number was grossly exaggerated. The future will show whether and how many VW employees actually have to leave. The same applies to the development of the entire labor market. This in turn is also linked to the economy, which is currently weakening. In his autumn forecast, the Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck (Greens) announced that the German economy will continue to shrink this year after 2023.
