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A study by management consultancy McKinsey shows which key industries will dominate the global economy by 2040. Europe and Germany also have good opportunities.
New York – Germany is teetering towards deindustrialization – and is experiencing a loss of important key industries such as semiconductor production, mechanical engineering and electromobility. This is roughly what the current swan song for the German economy is. The economic think tank at management consultancy McKinsey has now determined what the global economy might actually look like in 2040 and which sectors will conquer the markets. The so-called McKinsey Global Institute analyzed this Data from the 3000 largest companies in the world from the years 2005 to 2012.
18 key industries of the future: McKinsey study looks at drivers of the economy
The authors led by Chris Bradley, senior partner and director of the McKinsey Global Institute, identified twelve current and 18 future key industries. With their data on growth and market dynamics, the twelve sectors form the basis with which the authors were able to identify the 18 key industries of the future.
Future key industries will generate up to $48 trillion in sales
According to McKinsey, the potential of the 18 future key industries is gigantic: by 2040, they are expected to generate sales of between 29 and 48 trillion US dollars. The total profit would be between two and six trillion US dollars – which would then account for ten to 16 percent of global GDP. For comparison: The proportion is currently four percent.
Twelve of these 18 future industries also experienced disproportionate growth between 2005 and 2020: These included, for example, the digital sectors of software, video and audio entertainment, e-commerce, the Internet, information-based business services and cloud services. There are also companies from the areas of biopharmaceuticals, semiconductors, consumer electronics, industrial electronics, payment transactions and manufacturers of electric vehicles, which have experienced an unprecedented upswing in this decade.
According to the analysis, autonomous driving is one of the 18 key industries of the future. (Symbolic photo) © Klaus-Dietmar Gabbert/dpa
The average growth rate of companies in these areas was ten percent, while market capitalization rose to 16 percent. The share of global GDP tripled from three to nine percent within 15 years. However, those sectors that did not fall into the category of key industries only recorded a turnover of four percent in the same period. The market capitalization was six percent.
E-commerce, cloud services, e-cars and semiconductors are key industries – and will continue to dominate in 2040
In particular, the authors attest to the four sectors of e-commerce, cloud services, electric cars and semiconductors that they will still have a decisive share in the global economy in 2040. While electric cars are an important driver of innovation Energy transition apply, the e-commerce market is still not saturated. On the contrary: the digitization of numerous business models of traditional retailers would ensure that the industry’s share of global GDP would rise to between 14 and 20 trillion US dollars within 16 years. All companies together would have an estimated profit of between 280 and 1,000 trillion US dollars.
The semiconductor business will also become a similarly profitable key industry – the authors expect a profit margin of 20 to 25 percent or 340 to 600 trillion US dollars.
Study sees great potential for German electric vehicles – USA will continue to shape key sectors
The study by the authors led by Chris Bradley, senior partner and director of the McKinsey Global Institute, comes to the unsurprising conclusion that in the future around 65 percent of market capitalization within the key industries will go to US companies – while for companies from Europe there are only nine Percent. Bradley cites market power, disruptive entrepreneurial approaches, greater willingness to take risks and less regulation as reasons for the US’s superiority. Nevertheless, German car manufacturers have long been left behind, as large parts of the public are currently propagating. Rather, he sees great future growth opportunities for German automobile manufacturers in the area of electric vehicles due to their extensive know-how and engineering skills.
Another factor for success in future key sectors is the development of global markets – definitely a model of the German economy. Exports accounted for around 50 percent of total revenue in key industries. The report also names the German software company SAP – alongside Microsoft, IBM and Oracle – as an example of global expansion. All four giants made almost 60 percent of their sales outside their home country in 2020.
Europe shines with Spotify and Novo Nordisk from Denmark – potential in robotics and air taxis
But the study also mentions other European companies, such as Spotify, which is one of the market leaders in the audio sector.Streaming occupies a key industry worldwide. Novo Nordisk from Denmark, as a representative of an innovative healthcare industry, as well as various nuclear power companies in France are also rated as future-proof.
The study also predicts high growth potential until 2040 for eleven comparatively younger industrial sectors such as autonomous driving, robotics, air taxis and space tourism. The competition between companies would only start in a few years. They base this thesis on comparative data from 2005. Companies that now have around 33 percent of the market capitalization were economic lightweights or sometimes didn’t even exist. Only when various companies in a sector entered the market did innovation progress increase – and trigger the dynamics that are so important for the success of a sector.
The authors also attribute great growth potential in their markets to the areas of cybersecurity, video games, biotechnology and biochemistry. For example, cyber defense will become greater challenges in the future due to AI be exposed. In addition, research and thus the possibilities in the areas of biotechnology and biochemistry are constantly developing.
