■ Host: Anchor Han Yeon-hee
■ Appearance: Kim Hyeong-seok, former Vice Minister of Unification
* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate content. quote poem [YTN24] Please specify.
[앵커]
It’s Korean Peninsula Review time, which provides an in-depth analysis of North Korean issues and Korean Peninsula diplomacy and security news. Today, Kim Hyung-seok, former Vice Minister of Unification, appeared. hello.
[김형석]
Nice to meet you.
[앵커]
First, let’s look at the news about North Korean troops dispatched to Russia, which is receiving the most attention these days. There are reports like this that it has already headed to the front line, so please explain the current situation first.
[김형석]
It’s coming out of Ukraine now. Basically, the United States, NATO, and the international community have already confirmed that North Korea has dispatched troops to Russia. Didn’t that mean it was moved via a Russian naval ship in early October? So, after making preliminary preparations in the eastern part of Russia, we were dispatched to western Russia, to the Kursk region. There are also testimonies that say they saw North Korean soldiers in some Ukraine.
[앵커]
The Kursk region you mentioned was occupied by Ukraine in August. We will have to wait until the end to find out, but would there be a good reason for North Korean troops to be stationed here?
[김형석]
First of all, from Russia’s perspective, the war is already in its third year, and the situation is difficult in many ways. What is the situation, especially now that we are conscripting and using mercenaries, and the monthly wage is $300, and even though they say we will be paid about $2,000, it is not possible. So, there is a realistic situation where it is difficult to secure combat troops, and secondly, from Russia’s perspective, it has been occupied by Ukraine. It is a very proud area. So, we need to prioritize this area to overcome the war, and to do that, combat troops are really essential, so I think that’s why we requested North Korean troops and accepted them.
[앵커]
First of all, President Putin is no longer denying the dispatch of troops. We have said that it is up to us to figure out what to do with North Korea, but in the future, there is a high possibility that we will continue to insist and show off the need for military cooperation in this way, right?
[김형석]
First of all, I think it’s big. In the beginning, it probably was. So, the North Korean military’s participation in the current Ukraine war means a change in its very nature. Because it goes from a bilateral war to an international war. So, in the beginning, I think North Korea and Russia tried to disguise it. However, starting with Ukrainian President Zelensky, our South Korean intelligence unit confirmed this and talked about it publicly, so we can no longer hide it. Then, here we are literally making a head-on attack. So, as of now, there is no word that North Korea has ratified it yet, but doesn’t the Comprehensive and Strategic Partnership Agreement agreed to at the North Korea-Russia summit last June include the so-called automatic military intervention clause? I heard that Russia quickly ratified this. The original estimate was that it would be around the middle of next month, but it was done quickly.
So, based on this, we are literally attacking it head on by saying that we are doing it based on international norms. In doing so, wouldn’t this in itself require additional cooperation from North Korea? One of the grounds to justify it is that they will continue to promote propaganda in that way, and if the various circumstances of the war in Ukraine itself are unfavorable, then the only place for Russia to receive support is North Korea, right? Then, we will continue to receive support from North Korea. [앵커] By concluding and ratifying the treaty, we have prepared the basis, so we will proceed further in the future, but I think it is a little difficult from our perspective. To achieve denuclearization, cooperation from China and Russia is very necessary, but wouldn’t participating in the war mean advancing the relationship further than the relationship so far, even toward a blood alliance? I’m very worried. Wouldn’t this make it more difficult for us to approach North Korea’s denuclearization?
[김형석]
It gets difficult. So, denuclearization requires cooperation between China and Russia, and until 2016, China and Russia cooperated in imposing sanctions on North Korea in the name of denuclearization. But it doesn’t work after that. And recently, the activities of the North Korea Sanctions Committee itself have not been successful because Russia has opposed it. However, if China and Russia’s relationship with North Korea becomes more certain, especially if it becomes a blood alliance, I think there will be a limit to denuclearization in the same way as it has been done so far. However, what we need to see here is that the issue of denuclearization was approached by how to move North Korea based on the existing so-called cooperation between China and Russia until the early 1990s. But here, in a way, North Korea used a trick. Wouldn’t it be difficult if China and Russia did not support North Korea’s position? So, from North Korea’s perspective, it must clearly tie down China and Russia. From that perspective, nothing decisive has been done with China yet, but with regard to Russia, sending troops when Russia is in difficult times has its pros and cons from Kim Jong-un’s perspective.
There are crises and opportunities, but Russia has definitely received support through this dispatch of troops. Then, it will be difficult for Russia to raise a different voice regarding North Korea’s position in the future. And, for example, as North Korea always does, if there is a threat to the North Korean system, then Russia’s military support will automatically come, just as North Korea did. In a way, it can be seen that Chairman Kim Jong-un used this kind of ploy to prevent China and Russia from taking actions that run counter to North Korea’s position. In that case, from our perspective, we should also pursue denuclearization efforts based on the previous approach to denuclearization, premised on cooperation between China and Russia. However, rather than this, the issue of denuclearization should be resolved by taking an approach in which the so-called cooperation between North Korea, China, and Russia is strengthened overall, which in turn weakens cooperation between North Korea, China, and Russia, and the power of North Korea, China, and Russia declines. So it’s a little more comprehensive and more complex.
[앵커]
But on the other hand, it seems that while they are very close to Russia, they have shown a bit of estrangement from China, haven’t they?
[김형석]
I don’t see it that way. It’s not that I wish, but if you look at it traditionally, today is basically the 74th anniversary of the Chinese military’s participation in the Korean War. So now both China and North Korea are commemorating it. So, when so-called China was being chased by the Kuomintang, North Korea helped, and similarly, the Chinese army helped when North Korea was on the verge of annihilation during the Korean War, so the relationship with China has some twists and turns, but it is fundamentally a blood alliance.
[앵커] that
However, they used to celebrate it together, but this time they celebrated it separately, which gave it meaning.
[김형석]
I don’t mean to take it too seriously. Because strategically, there are North Korea and China, so I think it is too much of an interpretation to say that the fundamental relationship is damaged just because they did not work together.
[앵커]
All right. Actually, what I’m most curious about is why North Korea made this choice. It chose to send troops, but this is actually the most curious part. In the case of North Korea, it has continued to claim that it has developed nuclear weapons because of South Korea and the United States’ hostile policy toward North Korea in order to complete the logic of its own nuclear development. Isn’t it true? Then, North Korea’s claim of a security threat was merely to justify its nuclear development, and on the other hand, I think it may have dispatched troops because it had benefits that go beyond this. What do you think was the reason for the deployment?
[김형석]
So, North Korea said that nuclear development was for regime security, but after already declaring the completion of the national nuclear force in 2017, it said that this was a means of attack. So, it has already been decided that this is not because their security is being violated. Second, they keep saying that they are being invaded by us or the United States, but is there no reason for our country or the United States to invade North Korea now? Don’t you say you won’t do it? So, even though the special forces are not that large in number. So, in a way, there are 1.2 million people, of which 150,000 are special forces, but 10,000 of them are 10,000, so 10,000 is not a large number. If we remove this, will Korea or the United States suddenly attack us? I mean, it’s not like this. So, it is not a security aspect, and in my view, there is this nuclear development, but overall, by sending troops this time, as I said before, we will firmly tie China and Russia, especially Russia, to North Korea’s position. Then, North Korea is not dealing with the United States alone, but with China and Russia behind it, so North Korea can survive as a system and its voice becomes louder.
I think we dispatched troops for that purpose. So, in some ways, sending troops could be a grand design in the style of Kim Jong-un, but doing it this way will increase your position, and from the U.S. perspective, if you see this simply as an issue between North and South Korea, it is a much lower priority. But this is not the case, it is the so-called front line that has come directly to the United States. Then the priority increases. From North Korea’s perspective, the possibility of dealing with the United States is also increasing. But anyway, there is this when sending troops, but what Kim Jong-un has to worry about now is that if we or the United States, for example, unilaterally withdraw from the Ukraine war in Afghanistan, there will be a problem if Russia takes the upper hand, but that is not the case. It’s possible.
Then, if the so-called Western right of self-defense is completely victorious in the Ukraine war, then Russia or China will no longer be able to play the role of North Korea’s backbone. So, that’s one risk, and then the second thing is that if we dispatch troops, we haven’t talked about it inside North Korea yet, but if we talk about it inside North Korea, there’s psychological turmoil, and this could happen if something like this happens. Just like we did in the past, dispatching troops to the Vietnam War and going to the Middle East for construction, doesn’t that mean that the soldiers in Vietnam are now receiving about 2,000 dollars? Then, you will earn a huge amount of foreign currency, $240 million per year. If that money goes to North Korean soldiers, North Korean people say it’s good because we make money, but it doesn’t go, right? This goes to North Korean government funds. If that happens, what is this inside North Korea? Then, this could shake North Korea’s internal system and cause cracks.
[앵커]
In the case of North Korea, yesterday it actually admitted that it had dispatched troops to Russia. They stated that if something like that were to happen, it would be in line with international norms, but are they arguing that sending troops is justified because North Korea and Russia are allies?
[김형석]
That’s right. So, in a way, the current dispatch of North Korean troops is a violation of the UN Security Council resolution. That is why the Vice Minister in charge of Russia from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs came out and spoke. It’s really unique. We are mindful of all of that, but since we are the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, we are not directly involved in what the Ministry of Defense does. However, if such a thing were to happen, it would be an act justified by international norms. Well, this is it. But anyway, this itself is actually an admission. Should we say that this is a kind of public opinion battle to ensure that this is a legitimate and legal act of a sovereign nation, or should we look at it that way.
[앵커]
As you said earlier, it is not being announced internally. However, if you look at our National Intelligence Service’s announcement, there are rumors going around that they are talking about this and that families of soldiers being dispatched are being relocated en masse. It is said that this situation has also been captured, and as you briefly mentioned earlier, there is no psychological impact when the deployment of troops becomes known to North Korean residents. Could you please point out one more time?
[김형석]
As of now, it may only be a matter of time. This is what is being conveyed inside North Korea. If we assume that it is known, then there are 10,000 people, but it seems realistically difficult to pinpoint 10,000 people and separate their families into separate regions. So, to a limited extent, those that are problematic and that may be problematic will be separated out. I would do it this way. Basically, this is the position of the North Korean people and the parties involved. Looking at the overall picture right now, North Korean soldiers are also struggling with food shortages, so isn’t it a good thing that they don’t have to worry about food if they are dispatched there? Also, for example, if you achieve great achievements there, you will be able to move up the social class ladder because you will join the party. They say this is how it is done, but in the end, this leads to being taken prisoner, resulting in death, or in some cases, large-scale desertion due to group defection. There is something like this, or something like this. Then, from the parents’ point of view, this is really serious.
Then, internal anxiety becomes clear. Regarding this itself, North Korea has no means to calm this down. For example, if you receive $2,000, would you give that money to North Korean residents? I won’t give it to you. And again, blindly, since this is our war of justice against American imperialism, we just accept fate and do it. They say this is fate, but in the case of North Korean people, they can’t just watch their innocent children die. And I don’t know if this is an ordinary North Korean citizen, but if you look at it now, the elite North Korean soldiers are simple, like officers. Then, even within the North Korean leadership, why do they needlessly participate in the war against such a country and end up like this? So the cracks inside. Then, even within North Korea, it seems like North Korea is gaining the upper hand by holding on to Russia in the grand scheme of things, but looking at it overall, I think there are definitely crisis factors as well.
[앵커]
All right. We have looked at North Korea’s troop deployment situation and future prospects. Thank you so much for your words today. thank you
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