Georgia faces polarized legislative elections this Saturday with the Russian shadow lurking. The ruling party, Georgian Dream, has deployed warmongering rhetoric against the opposition, which it blames for wanting to bring the war between Russia and Ukraine to the country’s doors.
Instead, the rival formations present themselves under the aegis of the Georgian president, Salomé Zourabichvili, with a population reluctant to the anti-Western drift adopted by the Government.
Although the polls show Sueno Georgiano as the winner, “it is likely that he will not be able to form a government and will need a coalition, and that is where the role of the opposition comes in,” highlights the policy analyst at the Georgian Institute of Politics, Shota Kakabadze.
Likewise, the recently approved law on foreign agents has frozen the accession process to the European Union. Faced with this scenario, Georgia “has moved away from the ideas of European democracy and has moved closer to the visions that are propagated in countries like Hungary, that is, an illiberal democracy,” declares the former EU official and senior associate of the Royal Institute Egmont of International Relations of Belgium, Reinhold Brender.
Understanding the current situation in Georgia is to go back to the always volatile Caucasus area, as well as the present, although oscillating, Russian influence, in a region over which it has “privileged interests“.
Consequences of Russian interference
Within the recognized borders of Georgia, there are two independent republics in fact from Tbilisi: Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Both are supported from Moscow by interests that have shifted from the desire to reduce Georgian nationalism to stop its pro-Western drift.
In 2008, the president of Georgia was Saakashvili passedfounder of the main opposition party, United National Movement. He was the first president after the so-called “Rose Revolution”, and under his government he pushed for the country to move towards future accession to Western organizations such as the European Union.
His refusal to accept Russian control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as well as his attempt to expel paramilitary forces from both regions, ultimately “forced” Moscow’s intervention.
On August 7, 2008, Russian troops carried out a five-day invasion of Georgia. The conflict itself was barely comparable to subsequent conflicts in the Caucasus (see Nagorno Karabakh in 2020), but its repercussions continue to resonate 16 years later.
“The current political crisis and discourse in Georgia is a total consequence of Russian aggression,” declares the journalist and expert on Georgian national politics, Giorgi Menabde. “The Russian tanks are 35 kilometers from the capital, Tbilisi, and its citizens fear a new invasion, since the country does not have the same security guarantees from the West, as is the case with the Baltic States,” he clarifies.
Saakashvili was president until he lost the elections in 2012 after a series of police brutality scandals and demonstrations against it. Currently, he is one of the main representatives of the opposition to the Georgian Government and has been serving a prison sentence since 2021 after returning from his voluntary exile abroad.
His successor as president, Bidzina Ivanishvilicontinued part of Saakashvili’s foreign policy measures, although always seeking a balance between the EU and Russia. Something that has not prevented Moscow, through its support for Abkhazia and South Ossetia, from maintaining military bases in both regions and effective control of 20% of Georgian territory. “That is why, if Georgia joins the EU, it could be a great attraction for Abkhazia and South Ossetia also to overcome the conflict, because at least its population, not its authorities, would understand that there is a clear advantage of partnering with the Union“Adds Brender.
Striking a balance between Russia and the EU
Georgians’ resentment toward Moscow following the events of 2008 was notable in the subsequent decade. Instead, the ruling elite has gotten closer and closerespecially after the invasion of Ukraine.
“The main promise of Georgian Dream is to prevent new Russian aggression, which helps them maintain popularity among a significant part of the electorate,” Menabde reveals. “These elections will show how much the attitude of Georgians on this issue has changed, since many feel helpless“, insists.
Since the early 2000s, the Western vector of Georgian politics has enjoyed broad support from citizens. The country has enjoyed a visa-free regime with the Schengen zone for seven years and, in 2023, was named an official candidate for EU membership.
A survey carried out at the end of that same year by the National Democratic Institute and the Caucasus Research Resource Centers showed that the majority of Georgian citizens (between 51 and 52%) believed that the main threats to Georgia’s national security come from Russia.
The Government must balance both the rapprochement between the West and Russia, especially with the latter due to the ties that its main leaders have with Moscow. Among them, former Prime Minister Ivanishvili, “who made his fortune in the Soviet Union when he was part of a group of oligarchs who helped Yeltsin get re-elected as president,” explains Brender. “He is a billionaire who ventured into politics and, although he has since retired, he is watching her behind the scenesand their influence is crucial in determining the course of the Georgian Government,” he adds.
“But I must emphasize that fear of Russian aggression is not the only resource that Ivanishvili uses to consolidate his ‘One-Party Government,'” Menabde continues. “No less important is the post-Soviet tradition and mentality of ‘one man power’, in addition to the conservative values of Georgian society, the influence of the Orthodox church and anti-LGBTQ+ sentiments, all of which are treasured by the formation.”
Similarly, portraying Georgia as a pro-Russian state also overlooks important aspects. “The Georgian government has not reestablished diplomatic relations with Moscow since 2008; it calls Abkhazia and South Ossetia ‘occupied territories’ and Russia, an occupier,” Menabde points out.
Meanwhile, “Georgian Dream try to keep your balance by not supporting Ukraine or imposing sanctions against Moscow, while not formally abandoning its declarations of wanting to join NATO and the EU,” it states.
Russia is interested in keeping the border with Georgia open, since this would allows transit to Türkiye and Armenia. However, “the Government knows that it must give society what it asks for, which is integration into the EU, and hence the dilemma,” reiterates Kakabadze.
Law on foreign agents, the last obstacle
The law on foreign agents, approved a few months ago by the Government, is the result of the country’s drift towards an increasingly authoritarian regime. Not only is it a copy of the Russian one, but it surpasses it in rigor, by requiring the full disclosure of the personal data of all members of NGOs that receive more than 20% foreign financing.
Sponsorship by European and American foundations represents up to 95% of the total financing of Georgian NGOs, the main spokespersons against the ruling party. The anti-government media They also depend on these funds. Clearly, the measure seeks to undermine the opposition’s ability to respond.
Ahead of the elections, Georgian Dream seeks to present the West, the opposition and NGOs as part of a unified “war party” and willing to sacrifice the country in order to affect Russia. Despite this, “all the statements by their leaders about banning rival parties immediately after the elections are nothing more than electoral rhetoric and demagoguery to consolidate their followers, just like the foreign agents law, which is adopted, but not in force“, clarifies Menabde.
“Never before had the opposition had such a real opportunity to win the elections. While Georgian Dream will win more seats than any other party individually, the four opposition parties together can obtain a simple majority and form a coalition government… if each one exceeds the threshold of 5% of votes“he points out.
“Until this election, we always had the mixed system in parliament, where half of the seats were filled by the party’s proportional list, and the other by individual majority districts that the party won,” Karabadze notes. “So even if the party had 45% support, it usually got the majority.”
“This will be the first time we will have a fully proportional systemwhich gives the possibility of breaking this cycle of dominance of a single party,” he alludes.
For his part, Brender is more cautious: “Frankly, no one has a clear idea of what the people think, because polls give the Georgian Dream party more than 40% of the votes, making it the most popular party.” , are not reliable. The opposition calls them false, and it seems that the Government wants to prepare the ground so that, if he loses, he does not recognize his defeat”
Georgia navigates between an increasingly dangerous Russia and the West, which is gradually expanding eastward. Despite this, Menabde is firm: “Georgia will never become either ‘little Russia’ or Belarus; “The country still has independent media and national television channels opposed to the Government, in addition to many businessmen who openly support opposition parties.”
Obstacles to the EU accession process
When the EU granted candidate status to Georgia in December 2023, it was under certain conditions to continue in the process. The approval of the law on foreign agents, as well as various measures against LGTB+ groups, have paralyzed the negotiations.
“Europe represents for Georgia peace and prosperity in a region that does not know peace and prosperity, which is why at the time Saakashvili promoted the idea that the country has to find its place in the European Union, and that many of its citizens want to join,” notes Brender.
That is why “the introduction of the foreign agents law, incompatible with European values, was a splash of cold water that froze the accession process, and all this despite the fact that Georgian Dream still defends that entry into the EU is possible by 2030,” he clarifies.
Furthermore, with the war in Ukraine, “you have what they now call ‘geopolitical Europe,’ where the EU tries to get more actively involved with Eastern Europe which opens a window that Georgia (4:35) needs to take advantage of, because it is not going to be there forever,” warns Kakabadze.
At the moment, the European Union has not issued concrete sanctions against Georgia, nor has there been any visit by any member of the European Union to Georgia. “They are waiting for the results of the elections, because that will dictate the future approach of the EU towards Georgia,” he says.
