Par
Chrismaël Marchand
Published on Oct 25, 2024 at 8:38 p.m.
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The Aukus soap opera has just experienced a new twist. This alliance between Australia, the United States and Great Britain,
born behind the back of France in 2021, is clearly having a hard time getting established and even finding support.
After betraying Paris three years ago and skipping overnight a 56 billion euro contract for twelve conventionally powered submarines, Canberra is still far from being able to have a new submarine fleet, according to a recent report from the US Congress.
1. A logistical problem
The hundred-page report prepared by the United States Congressional Research Service emits
serious doubts about the value of the first stage of the Aukus project. Initially, during the next decade, Australia must, in fact, acquire from the United Statesbetween three and five Virginia-class submarines
before the construction, during a second phase in the 2040s, of a fleet of eight nuclear-powered submarines. Problem is, the American industrial fabric is already struggling to supply its own army. While the US Navy expects an annual production of 2.33 Virginias,it currently produces at a rate of 1.3 Virginia per year
. Obviously insufficient both to keep pace with the arms race against the Chinese rival and to “help out” the Australian ally.
2. A financial problem With its estimated cost of $240 billion
(it increases gradually) over 30 years, the Aukus program is already irrational. But, with the turn of events, it clearly worries the United States Congressional Research Service which sees a project “already too big to abandon” and anticipates a situation which risks increasing the risk of cost overruns. According to the CRS, Australia should instead redirect its funding towards strengthening other military capabilities
“such as long-range anti-ship missiles, drones, lurking munitions, B-21 long-range bombers or other long-range attack aircraft.” A controversial and… not very advantageous option for the Australian partner.
3. A political problem In Australia, opponents are seriously starting to step up. Because, in addition to not being able to have new submarines to replace an aging Collins class, Canberra could, according to the CRS report,find yourself under the control of the American navy
the latter retaining ownership of all Virginia-class submarines, “while operating some from an Australian naval base and ensuring both American and Australian missions”. Little chance that the Australians will accept such conditions,what’s more with such a bill
. Especially when we compare it with that of Naval Group for the previous contract, although thrown in the trash…
: CRS is an independent service that provides policy information to the US Congress, without making firm policy recommendations.Follow all the news from your favorite cities and media by subscribing to Mon Actu.
