China’s economic growth slows in the July-September period, highlighting the need for additional stimulus measures

China’s economy slowed in the third quarter (July-September). This confirms the need for additional economic stimulus measures to achieve this year’s growth targets.

The National Bureau of Statistics announced on the 18th that the gross domestic product (GDP) for the period July-September increased by 4.6% compared to the same period last year. This was the slowest growth since January-March 2023 (the first quarter).

The median forecast of economists compiled by Bloomberg (a 4.5% increase) was slightly higher. In the April-June period (second quarter) of this year, it increased by 4.7%.

The growth rate for the January-September period fell to 4.8%. “If this trend continues until the end of the year, it will be difficult to achieve the official growth target of around 5%,” said Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management. encouraged growth.”

Industrial production in September increased by 5.4% compared to the same month last year, exceeding economists’ expectations (a 4.6% increase). Retail sales in September increased by 3.2%. The forecast was for an increase of 2.5%.

Retail sales were likely higher than expected due to government subsidies for the purchase of home appliances. Home appliance sales were up 21% compared to the same month last year, a sharp increase from the 3% increase in August.

The Office for National Statistics said that despite the stimulus package and the improvement in key indicators, caution is needed. “The external environment has become more complex and tougher, and we need to strengthen the foundations for recovery and economic development,” a spokesperson from the statistics bureau said in a statement.

Fixed asset investment for the January-September period increased by 3.4% compared to the same period last year. The Economist survey had predicted an increase of 3.3%. The property sector continues to decline, with investment in property development falling by 10.1% in the period between January and September.

The urban unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in September. In August, it was 5.3%.

Original title:China’s data offer a mixed picture, indicating a stimulus crisis(section)

(It will be updated with comments from market participants and statistics bureau speakers. The notification date was corrected before the update.)