[The Epoch Times, Dàmhair 16, 2024](Reported by Epoch Times reporters Ning Haizhong and Luo Ya) Three American scholars won the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics. In their books published 12 years ago, two of the scholars were making a- found that China’s economic development would slow down under the autocratic regime. Some experts believe that the current situation in China is basically in line with expectations, and that China’s economic collapse under the rule of the CCP is inevitable.
A Nobel Prize winner in economics predicted the CCP’s situation 12 years ago and drew attention
On October 14, the Nobel Prize in Economics 2024 was announced.
The award committee pointed out that the research of the three scholars confirmed the importance of social institutions to the success of a country and helped people to understand why a society with weak rule of law and institutional use of the people cannot grow economically or develop to bring about.
Among them, “Why Nations Fail: The Roots of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty” (hereinafter referred to as “Why Nations Fail”), published by Acemoglu and Robinson in 2012. The book believes that there are inclusive institutions (or inclusive institutions) and extractive institutions (extractive institutions) in both the economic and political spheres. The best combination is an inclusive political system + an inclusive economic system; the worst combination is an extractive political system + an extractive economic system.
In fact, Amartya Sen, who won the Nobel Prize in economics in 1998, made a similar conclusion based on historical facts: a major famine has never occurred in a country with a democratic government and a free press.
Hong Kong writer Feng Jingqian posted on Facebook on the 15th that “Why Countries Fail” has made accurate predictions for China’s economic development a long time ago, and his theory has now been confirmed. finally!”
Feng Jingqian quoted from the book to explain that the so-called “inclusive system” refers to the diversified distribution of political power in society, the establishment of law and order, a fair market method to protect private property rights from bankruptcy, and the opportunity for many to share economic achievements. On the other hand, in the “extractive system”, political power and economic interests are monopolized by a few people, it is difficult to protect private property rights, people are unwilling to save, and they have no reason to produce, invest and innovation, making economic development unsustainable.
Acemoglu and Robinson said that withdrawal systems of this change will not last and will hinder any innovation., the economic system has also been affected, and sustainable development cannot be ensured.
Both authors believe that China’s successful growth over the past three decades is the result of a fundamental change in its economic system, from an extractive system to one that is much more inclusive, although however, the highly authoritarian and extractive political system has made controlling this inclusive system increasingly difficult. China’s wealth will disappear as the authorities cling to power for decades to come. “Nonetheless, Chinese growth is likely to end as well. “
On January 29, 2024, a woman walked through a residential complex called “Evergrande Palace” in Beijing Evergrande Group. (Greg Baker/Getty Images)
The year “Why Countries Fail” was published, Xi Jinping had just come to power. Feng Jingqian said sternly, 12 years later, China’s economic development has gradually “cleaned up” as Acemoglu and Robinson planned to prove again, and this Nobel Prize is deserved. “From now on, if someone asks you, ‘Can democracy be a living thing?’ you might also answer, ‘Nobel Prize winners in economics say yes.’ And they correctly predicted that countries without democracy, even if they are successful for a while, will eventually fail. Want to eat grass!”
Chang Ping, a reporter living in Germany, also wrote on Deutsche Welle’s website, “This year’s Nobel Prize in Economics made the CCP unhappy ten years ago.”
The article said, according to the explanation of “Why Nations Fail”, in the more than seventy years of mainland China’s rule, the CCP has been in the worst mix for most of the period: extractive political system + extractive economic system. . This also explains why the Chinese people are in dire straits, society has collapsed, and tens of millions of people are starving to death. As for the historical fragment more than thirty years after 1978, it belongs to another combination, that is, an extractive political system + an inclusive economic system. But such a combination can generate growth, but it is not sustainable.
China’s special issue “Why do countries fail” encounters challenges?
On October 14, Professor Acemoglu answered reporters’ questions at a press conference announcing the Nobel Prize winners via a live telephone link. Regarding how to explain the great economic prosperity that self-governing China has achieved, he said that the case of China was a particular challenge to his research findings. However, he believes that while authoritarian regimes such as China have achieved good economic growth by investing in innovative areas such as AI, their stability and stability are not as good as democratic societies.
Wang He, an expert on China affairs, published an article in the Epoch Times as early as February 13, 2022, analyzing China’s critique of “Why Countries Fail.” In a recent interview with the Epoch Times, he said that while maintaining an extractive system, the CCP has carried out economic reform and opened up and transformed into an in- tenant, which gave the Chinese economy a special place for development and growth. However, this is The concessions and changes that came to be made under the circumstances were incomplete and very limited, and it is now turning back, so its growth in the thirties last year it stopped immediately and went down. (Previous reports:Wang He: Why is it difficult for the Chinese economy to surpass the United States?)
Sun Guoxiang, an associate professor in the Department of International Affairs and Entrepreneurship at Nanhua University in Taiwan, told The Epoch Times that China’s economic miracle of the past thirty years can indeed be attributed to of the transformation of the economic system. In fact, it is China’s transformation from a fully extractive economy to a fully extractive economy. However, because China’s political system is still authoritarian and extractive, it is difficult to maintain long-term economic growth up This is in line with the expectations of the Nobel Prize winner in economics.
Chang Ping, a reporter who lives in Germany, mentioned in the aforementioned article that China today is experiencing political darkness and economic problems, and the mainstream ideological circles are still more willing to to blame Xi Jinping for betraying Deng Xiaoping, rather than the inevitable result of the CCP autocratic regime.
Wang He said that China’s current economic problems are not only caused by Xi Jinping’s personal factors and his policies, but also the inevitable result of the CCP system. Xi Jinping is the spokesman and defender of the CCP system. Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party system are indeed coming together.
Sun Guoxiang said that the autocratic system ultimately leads to economic stagnation, which is the result of the institutional structure. However, in order to protect the individuals or their small groups, these leaders did not care about the development of the country and delayed the rule of the Communist Party.
There was once an idea that the Chinese Communist system was going to collapse, but later there were also ideas that it would “fall but not collapse.” “
Wang He said that judging from the evolution of China’s economic situation, it will definitely fall apart It’s just a question of how long it will take. “China’s economy is now in serious decline, and relying on political coercion and some policy support is no longer effective. China’s economy is falling off the cliff faster and faster, and it cannot be stopped anymore. No matter who the CCP, the central bank, the Ministry of Finance, or the National Development and Reform Commission, there is no way.”
How do you define a North Korean-style regime?
A schematic diagram showing Xi Jinping’s visit to North Korea is broadcast on a large screen outside a shopping mall in Beijing in June 2019. (Greg Baker/AFP/Getty Images)
Some observers often use this as an example of how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) did not collapse despite the economic problems of the Maoist era and how North Korea existed in the long run.
Sun Guoxiang said that a totalitarian system can maintain its rule through strict control mechanisms, suppress dissent, and use propaganda tools to shape public opinion and stabilize power. Second, these regimes usually rely on external support or limited economic resources to continue their rule. This does not mean that such systems are stable.
“Whether North Korea relied on aid from China or the Soviet Union, or mainland China relied on external investment for thirty years, if they did not change structurally, or as an economist said Nobel Prize, the system will be if there is no change, it will be. it will still be difficult to get rid of the structural problems of the economy and society.”
Wang He said that extractive systems maintain a solid system. As long as it can maintain control and remain separate from the outside world, just like a zombie, it can be preservedfor a long time under certain conditions, but if it comes into contact with the air, it will rot away immediately.
“Like North Korea, it must have certain conditions. At the moment, these conditions are shaky, and so at a certain time in the future, as long as it continues to interact with the t -outside world, it will surely fall.”
Editor-in-Chief: Li Renhe #
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2024-10-16 10:43:00
