Intermoney | Aena (Buy, PO €215 from €205) will announce its results at 9m 24e next Wednesday, October 30 before the market opens, holding a conference call that same day, expected at 1:00 p.m. We expect that the growing traffic levels (+10% as of September), as well as the strength of commercial activity, have generated an EBITDA in this period of around €2,650 Mn (+25%)compared to just over €2,100 Mn in 2019. We estimate net profit at €1,466 Mn, implying +29% growth. We confirm our estimates for 24e-26e, which we raised an average of +10% at the EBITDA level last July, before the 1H figures, implying a +12% CAGR 23-26e.
We confirm Buy recommendation, while increasing our PO to €215 from €205. On July 15, we raised our recommendation of Aena to Buy from Hold, as well as the PO to 205 from the previous one of €170, dated December 24th. This was a consequence of the raising of forecasts following exceptional Q1 results, marked by operating costs much lower than expected. The increase in PO on this occasion to €215 is based on the delay of the cash flow discount date until December. 25e. We have not changed our position, especially with quite resilient traffic growth. Although Aena will always be subject to the vagaries of geopolitics, we do not see serious downside risks, given its comfortable financial situation. In fact, even if the operator carried out acquisitions to achieve its objective of 15% of EBITDA generated outside Spain, which we do not foresee in our estimates, we estimate that the debt/EBITDA ratio would remain below 2x.
