/ world today news/ A whole bunch of versions have arrived about the postponement of the repeatedly promised counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Renaud Girard, a columnist for the French edition of “Figaro”, said: “the delay is caused by the Ukrainian president’s fears that his “defenders” (defenders, ed.) simply will not go on the offensive due to banal fatigue.”
Although “Zelensky has said he has the means to launch a large-scale counteroffensive,” the author of the Figaro article points out, “he will wait, as a premature attack would cost the Ukrainians too much.”
The French journalist is convinced that “Zelensky is driven by the fear that his army and citizens are tired after 15 months of conflict.”
At the same time, for leading European politicians, the conflict in Ukraine remains the main issue, so Zelensky’s recent trips to the countries of the continent are designed to strengthen the West’s support for Kiev in the long term, Gerrard said.
In the American newspaper The Washington Post, retired US Army Lt. General Mark Hertling suggested that the “counterattack” did not begin due to the complexity of its organization and high risks.
The general noted that such “operations require more forces, better maneuverability, accurate aiming and firing, longer and more reliable supply lines”, while “the Ukrainian army has not yet carried out anything like this on such a scale”.
We recall that on May 1, Zelensky explained the postponement of the counteroffensive by the need for more time for its preparation.
He stated that the current technical resources allow the armed forces of Ukraine to advance successfully, but this will be associated with heavy losses.
The Deputy Chief of Staff of the President of Ukraine, Igor Zhovkva, in an interview with Sky News, complained that the armed forces of Ukraine do not have enough Western-supplied weapons. He also said that Kiev hopes to conduct the counteroffensive as successfully as possible.
In addition, according to him, it will be the return of all lost territories under the control of Ukraine. That is why Zelensky went on a European tour – to demand new packages of Western aid.
In early April, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal said that the armed forces of Ukraine would go into active action in the summer. Later, however, he already promised the start of the offensive in the very near future.
The military expert, the head of the department of the Institute for the CIS countries, Vladimir Evseev, is convinced that Zelensky’s fears are not caused by the fatigue of the military and the population.
– The fact is that too many combat-ready formations have already been lost in Artyomovsk. According to the head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, 400 to 600 servicemen from the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been coming to Artyomovsk every day lately, and as many have died.
Moreover, they have not been mobilized in the last period – the rookies could not hold the defense so stubbornly. These were well-trained fighters. That is, in the last two months, about 24 thousand people have died there, and the number of wounded can be assumed to be one and a half times more.
Too many forces were deployed there by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, they try to unfasten the pincers, to act on the flanks. The question arises whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the strength to attack in other areas.
“SP”: The Ukrainian leadership occasionally complains about the lack of weapons.
– That’s true. Even in the course of active operations, the armed forces of Ukraine use few tanks and protect them. Moreover, their number is decreasing. In addition, very large losses of artillery were noted – during the month about 200 barrels, which is quite a lot.
This is due to the fact that the Ukrainian military changed tactics, began to act more often in counterattacks, but this led to artillery losses. Hopes for different “know-how” are not justified.
The same “highmars” we learned to fight. Of the drones that our army has already quite successfully neutralized. Now the British are delivering long-range missiles, but we are already countering them. Depleted uranium projectiles did not work, as the stockpiles were destroyed, as a result of which the enemy received radioactive contamination over a large area, including Poland.
The Ukrainian high command is constantly counting on some “miracle weapon” that will help victory. Like Hitler at the end of the Great Patriotic War, he hoped in vain for something similar.
Sure, you can paint a pretty picture of a networked war where every combatant is equipped with a satellite-connected tablet. But in the open, this tablet with a satellite activator turns the fighter into a target.
“SP”: Fashion concepts crashed in combat reality?
– They may have worked in other conflicts, but here they met very powerful resistance by various means: radio electronic warfare, drones, manned aircraft and others. So when you’re dealing with a powerful enemy, these American concepts fail.
And this translates into increased mobilization, to avoid which Ukraine faces five years in prison. There are not enough motivated nationalists. There are unprepared people in the ranks who simply cannot attack.
And the West demands because it has supplied many weapons. And it turns out that they have to attack to please the West, but this will lead to huge losses and a drop in the morale of the entire army. Kind of a dead end.
Military expert, head of the department for political analysis and socio-psychological processes of the REU. G.V. Plekhanov Andrey Koshkin draws attention to Zelensky’s trip to European countries.
– He is doing a kind of revision at the behest of Washington, mobilizing European leaders on the Ukrainian issue, checking their loyalty. He interacts with the curators.
As for the “counterattack”, I am convinced that it will take place. We have the opportunity to communicate with our servicemen who are on the contact line, and they talk about the high motivation of the enemy.
His capabilities, skills, artillery support, of course, decrease, but the motivation remains. They don’t dig trenches. In addition, conditions are created there to fight. So needless to say, everyone across the street is tired.
“SP”: When should we expect a broad offensive from the other side?
– Now Zelensky is bargaining for his personal interests, as he is thinking about his own prospects. He understands that after the counteroffensive there will be some reformatting of the situation where he may not have a place. Therefore, he insists on accelerated acceptance into the EU, NATO, then the “counterattack” will begin.
But the partners demand a “counterattack” going forward. In response, Zelensky wants fighter jets and much more. That is, he is in the mode of such a hard dialogue, in which the positions of the parties are arranged.
In general, he does such a job to mobilize Europe to help his regime and at the same time delay the counter-offensive. From a military point of view, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need 30 percent resource to provide an offensive impulse from the second echelon.
In such a situation, Zelensky would like to postpone the “counterattack” until the summer. But the West recalls the weapons delivered, the money allocated, indicates the announced deadlines, because Biden is talking about the spring counteroffensive.
“SP”: In general, he also took a certain position.
– That is why today in Europe they are starting to recommend Zelensky to agree to a peace agreement. But it is too early to say whether these votes will have any effect. And the publication in Figaro is one of those voices that advise the Ukrainian president to negotiate for peace.
After all, the transatlantic monolith, which is constantly talked about in Washington, Brussels, London, also has destructive properties. Europe is already tired of resisting, does not want to, and sometimes has nothing to do.
This is proven by the situation with Ukrainian grain, with the reluctance of people to supply weapons to Kiev. So such opinions will be expressed, it is an objective process. Another is that some would like to describe what is happening as a smoke screen, a red mist.
This applies to the work of information warfare specialists. But after all, Borel already states that the arsenals of some countries are empty, and weapons for the armed forces of Ukraine are taken from the stocks for the active armies, which calls into question the provision of national security.
Translation: SM
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