/ world today news/ Talk of the “Ukrainian offensive” died down for a while while Li Hui, an envoy from Beijing, was in Kiev. For some, it seemed for a moment that the conflict could indeed be resolved with the help of such a powerful mediator as China. But Zelensky did not like the conversation with the guest, although Li apparently brought money with him, more precisely a promise of generous investments in Ukraine if it agreed to a ceasefire.
The Chinese government’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, has been received by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on Thursday. Li outlined Zelensky’s Chinese “peace formula,” which does not include the return of lost territories to Ukraine.
Before Zelensky, the guest also met with the head of his administration Andrey Yermak, which was attended by the head of military intelligence Kiril Budanov, the ministers of energy and infrastructure German Galushchenko and Alexander Kubrakov. Ermak asked Beijing to join the Ukrainian “peace formula”. “We are interested in China participating in the implementation of Ukraine’s ‘peace formula,'” he said, adding that Kiev “considers its formula comprehensive.”
The envoy emphasized in response that Beijing will adhere to the four principles regarding the Ukrainian conflict proposed by President Xi Jinping (respect for sovereignty, respect for the UN Charter, taking into account the concerns of each side and using peaceful methods to resolve the conflict ), the foreign ministry spokesman said later.
As you know, these four principles are based on a broader document – “China’s position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis” (published in February this year and envisages an immediate cease-fire, in fact a freeze of the conflict on the current front line). According to the press secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Chinese diplomacy intends on this occasion to “seek the broadest points of contact between the international community”.
It is worth recalling that Li Hui arrived in Kyiv on Wednesday evening and was immediately received by the country’s foreign minister Dmitry Kuleba. Immediately after their conversation, Kuleba’s office announced that “Ukraine does not accept any proposals involving the loss of its territories or the freezing of the conflict.” Strictly speaking, the Chinese guest could have ended his visit immediately, since the “formula” he brought was fundamentally at odds with Kuleba’s thesis.
It is noteworthy that on the night of Thursday, airstrikes continued on Kiev, where the guest from China was. Explosions rang out in the Ukrainian capital.
Although Li’s meeting with Zelensky was not officially announced, the Kyiv publication “Strana” reported on it on Wednesday evening, citing its sources. It should be noted that the office of the President of Ukraine, reporting on the results of the visit of the Special Representative of the Middle East on Thursday, for some reason did not mention either his meeting with Zelensky or even the Chinese “peace” at all. the formula itself. That is, the fact of the meeting between Li and Zelensky became public only thanks to the press service of the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
Such strange behavior of Zelensky’s office shows that the conversation did not work out, believes Alexander Lukin, scientific director of the Institute for China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
“Apparently, Li Hui has not been able to find a way in Kiev to move to a concrete agreement. His proposals were rejected. In fact, they should have been rejected because all of the “Four Principles” were based on the famous 12 points of Xi Jinping’s peace plan released back in February. In particular, he called for an immediate ceasefire agreement, which is unacceptable to Zelensky. This is probably why Li Hui admitted that there was no success, that no “panacea” could be found, explains Lukin.
“Nevertheless, the Ukrainian leadership considered it necessary to receive the envoy because it does not want to quarrel with such a large country. In addition, China, in its 12-point peace plan, published back in February, generously promised to contribute to the future recovery of Ukraine after the signing of the agreement,” the expert recalls.
“Certainly, Li Hui has told Zelensky that China is ready to add serious investment to its peace plan. It is unlikely that he will specify specific amounts, but he may have promised help for the peaceful development of the Ukrainian economy,” Lukin believes.
Obviously, in Beijing they wanted to attract Kiev with the help of this financial argument, but this is still impossible, the interlocutor believes. “Zelensky still adheres to the principle that we should first ‘restore the border from the early 1990s’ and only then start negotiations,” Lukin recalled.
“When Chinese diplomacy calls for ‘taking into account the security concerns’ of all countries, it means not only Russian concerns. That is, on the one hand, this may mean a commitment to Ukraine’s neutrality, but on the other hand, for example, Kiev’s concerns are also being discussed. In theory, it is possible to agree to the demilitarization of neighboring regions, to create a wide security strip on both sides of the demarcation line, as is done along the 38th parallel that separates North and South Korea. We can agree on other measures to restore confidence – they are known in international diplomacy, “suggests the expert.
In turn, Valdai Club program director Timofey Bordachov believes that Li Hui’s words about the lack of a “panacea” mean “that the ways to end the conflict cannot be developed based on the position of only one of the parties. So they have to make concessions somewhere and generally reconcile each point of the requirements with the others.
According to the analyst, Li Hui will tour all five planned countries – Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany and Russia, collect their proposals, summarize them, and based on this material, China will develop and then propose a solution to the Ukrainian conflict. “But of course, each country will need the ‘mutual trust’ that the Chinese diplomat mentioned,” warns Bordachev.
According to the analyst, Beijing still believes in the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the conflict, he does not share the opinion that everything will be decided by the military on the battlefield.
“Among the countries visited by Li Hui, there are no Great Britain and the United States, because they, despite all kinds of help to Ukraine, directly say: the final decision on how to end the current conflict remains in Kiev,” the expert recalled. In turn, the Russian diplomats await the Chinese guest with great curiosity. “We are looking forward to him, we want to know what his trip will bring,” Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said earlier. By the way, Li is well known in Moscow – he was ambassador here in 2009-2019 and speaks Russian fluently.
Chinese political scientists do not rule out that the peace process will drag on for a long time. According to Sun Qi, executive director of the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, to overcome sharp differences “and strive for the highest common denominator, one visit by the Chinese envoy is not enough, not even two or three trips are. It takes a lot of traveling.” According to him, since Beijing is not involved in the conflict and acts as an impartial third party, therefore its representative can visit different countries.
“It is quite logical that the Chinese special envoy should visit Ukraine first, but it is worth noting that Ukraine was chosen as the first stop, which shows China’s sincerity in mediating the Ukraine crisis and expresses full respect for Ukraine,” Sun said.
Last week, China’s permanent representative to the UN, Zhang Jun, said that the resumption of talks on Ukraine “cannot be expected for much longer” and conditions must be created for them to start immediately.
There is even some competition in the peacekeeping sphere. At the beginning of the week, the countries of Black Africa decided to come up with their initiative. “The President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, and the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, with whom I am in contact, have agreed to host the mission of a number of African heads of state in Moscow and Kiev,” South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said. According to him, the Secretary General of the United Nations and the leadership of the African Union are aware of this initiative. Later, the President of South Africa announced his desire to personally come to Ukraine on this occasion.
“The peace process with the Chinese and the Africans can go in parallel, while they will have to interact with each other,” noted Africanist Aleksandar Zdaniewicz on this occasion, adding that it “will be a delicate game.”
On Thursday, citing sources, the publication “June Afrique” revealed some details of the peace plan of the African Union. According to him, the initiative contains elements such as a temporary ceasefire and a new referendum in Donbas.
Alexander Lukin suggests that there is no such clause in the plan presented to Zelensky by Li Hui. “Beijing really does not believe in such plebiscites. He prefers personal agreements between the leaders of different countries. I don’t think Beijing will like this idea,” the Sinologist believes. As you know, many countries do not recognize Tibet as a legal part of China.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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