EPAA banner with Nasrallah’s photo hangs in a square in Tehran.
What will Iran do after the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah? Hezbollah’s most important ally has so far shown relative restraint in the conflict in the Middle East. According to experts, the country now faces a devilish dilemma: continue to hold back at the risk of no longer being taken seriously as a military superpower, or risk a large-scale conflict that it cannot cope with?
“We do not want to be the source of instability in the Middle East,” new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a statement early this week. speech at the United Nations. “Israel is dragging us to a place we don’t want to go.”
Less than a week later, the big question is whether that point has been reached. The death of Nasrallah and other Hezbollah leaders is yet another blow that Israel has dealt to the movement in a short time. Hezbollah is Iran’s most important partner in the region.
“Israel knows that Iran has its hands tied,” says Iran expert Peyman Jafari. “Because if Pezeshkian wants to improve relations with the West, they cannot afford another war. But this attack on Hezbollah has turned Iran’s calculations upside down.”
If Iran does not respond, there will be nothing left of the deterrent effect that Iran believes it has on their enemies.
Ali Vaez, Iranian expert
This is not the first time in the past year that Iran has had to weigh its options. After bombing the Iranian consulate in Damascus last April, Iran fired hundreds of drones at Israel. Israel managed to intercept all but a few. This summer, relations were on edge again when Israel liquidated two leaders from Hamas and Hezbollah in one day. There was no Iranian response at the time.
“The policy in Iran at the time was: we must have strategic patience. But the question is when that patience will run out in Tehran,” says Jafari. “For Iran’s leaders, survival is the most important thing. If there is an existential danger to their existence, they will take action with their allies.”
Loss of face
These allies are also called the ‘axis of resistance’: militias in the Middle East that are supported by Iran. This includes Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. If Iran does not respond to Nasrallah’s death, those militias will lose confidence in Iran as their mainstay, Jafari says. “If Iran is the major absentee when Hezbollah takes blows, this will lead to enormous demoralization among Hezbollah, but also among the other allies.”
This is also said by Ali Vaez, Iran expert at the renowned think tank Crisis Group. “If Iran does not respond, the deterrent effect that Iran believes it has on its enemies will be lost.”
The death of the Hezbollah leader leads to shocked reactions among these people in Beirut:
They react in shock to Nasrallah’s death: ‘We have no one left’
The other options are that Iran encourages Hezbollah to fight back with the limited capabilities they still have to do so, or Iran will have to enter the conflict directly. Vaez considers the first option the most plausible. “Iran knows that Israel is much stronger and also has the strongest army in the world behind it: that of the US. Iran doesn’t stand a chance against that. So I expect that Iran will encourage Hezbollah to respond, to the extent they are able to do so.” state.”
In an initial response, Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, also seems to hint at this. He says Hezbollah will make Israel regret its actions. He calls on all Muslims to support the people of Lebanon and “the proud Hezbollah” in the confrontation with the “oppressive and evil regime”.
Secure location
Khamenei has now been transferred to an extra-secure location, Iranian government officials reported to the Reuters news agency. Jafari: “That doesn’t happen often, so this shows how alert Iran is and how seriously Tehran takes the danger from Israel. Israel has shown that with the help of the Americans, they can go far to hit Iran.”
At the same time, Israel is also aware of Iran’s enormous arsenal of weapons, Jafari says. “The danger is that Israel’s air defense system cannot stop it all. That is why Israel is also reluctant to attack Iran directly.”
