Three states in focus
Harris leads Trump – but that’s not enough
September 29, 2024 – 2:02 a.m. Reading time: 3 min.
Kamala Harris: She could get the most votes but still lose. (Source: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
In the US, most polls show voters are inclined to vote for Kamala Harris. But that alone is not enough for her to win.
Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump in many polls. In a nationwide comparison of several survey institutes, the British “Guardian” sees the American Vice President currently at 48.2 percent, while the Republican is at 44.4 percent. This seems to confirm a positive trend for Harris that has continued since Joe Biden gave up the presidential race. The US poll website FiveThirtyEight sees a 58 percent chance that Harris will win the election in November. The election researchers calculate only 42 percent for Trump.
And yet that’s no reason for Harris to celebrate. In the American electoral system, it is not important who gets the most votes from voters. Whoever receives the most votes from electors is elected. And these are determined in the states, some provide more, others less. This makes the states in which there are many electoral votes and which are traditionally competitive – the swing states – particularly interesting.
Donald Trump: He won important states in 2016. (Source: Evan Vucci)
Although Hillary Clinton had a large majority of voters in 2016, Donald Trump was able to secure electoral votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. That was enough for him to win.
Experts: Large distances can provide clues
“We talk about these national polls, but the bottom line is it’s a race for 270 electoral votes,” said CNN data analyst Harry Enten. “One way to understand this is: What are Harris’ chances if she rises in favor? And what are Harris’ chances of winning the electoral vote?” For him, what matters is how big the gap in voter favorability is. According to the analyst, the further ahead Harris is in the polls, the greater her chances of victory.
According to the Guardian, Nate Cohn, who analyzes survey results for the New York Times, sees a similar trend. There is increasing evidence of a surprising possibility: [Trumps] once-huge lead in the Electoral College is not as ironclad as many suspected. Instead, it could shrink,” argued Cohn. This requires a lead in the total number of votes.
Small Harris lead in three states
The poll numbers in the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin provide indications of the classification of such a lead: Here Harris is just ahead, with a gap of one to two percentage points. But Newsweek magazine sees no reason for optimism in this. In Wisconsin in particular, polls are often better for the Democrats than is the case in the election. In addition, the error rate in surveys is around four percent. In Michigan, both candidates are tied, although Harris previously had a lead.
At the same time, Trump appears to be making gains in states where he has previously been given fewer chances. In New York, a democratic bastion, Trump can suddenly make slight gains, as the Guardian reports.
One reason for Trump’s slightly improving poll numbers in three states in the so-called Rust Belt, where many workers live, could be economic policy. “Voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio trust Trump more than Harris: The former president receives 54 percent approval on the issue, Harris 42 percent,” reports the New York Post, based on September 21-26 survey conducted by the Times. In North Carolina it also currently looks like a stalemate. Trump won here in 2016 and 2020, but according to a Fox study he is only one percentage point ahead.
As long as both candidates are within the margin of error in surveys, reliable statements are impossible. But if the experts at CNN and the Times are right, at least a trend is foreseeable. With a margin of 3.6 percent, Harris is approaching the four percent margin of error. If it exceeds this nationwide, this can also have an impact on the opinion of voters in the states, says “Guardian” expert Robert Tait in his analysis of the current surveys.
