But the Ukrainians will only say “I’m checking” when they carry out another raid.
The easiest way is to attack your own territory
At the same time, some experts hesitate whether the Kremlin will actually want to use nuclear weapons to prove its determination. But on a small scale, i.e. its tactical variant used at the front and its close hinterland. To reduce the inevitable wave of outrage in the world, he could attack his own territory – attack the areas of the Kursk Oblast occupied by Ukrainian troops.
This would result in huge losses among local residents, but this is not an argument that could convince anyone in the Kremlin. The question is what consequences the attack would have on the course of the war.
The West and Russian “red lines”
However, Putin’s current blackmail is not directed mainly at Kiev, but primarily at the USA and the West. And there is an ongoing discussion whether to allow Ukrainians to use Western weapons against targets in Russia. In the situation of uncertainty prevailing in Western capitals, strong and decisive intimidation may play a role.
– The Kremlin doesn’t really know how to respond to Western countries crossing its red lines, which is why it uses the rhetoric of deterrence. In some cases, such language still plays its role, occasionally inhibiting Western aid to Ukraine, says Borys Bondarev, an expert from the American Jamestown Foundation.
