/ world today news/ If he loses once, the leader of GERB will lose his magical power, according to sociologist Parvan Simeonov
Parvan Simeonov was born in 1982 in Stara Zagora. Doctoral student in political science at SU. Director of Gallup International. He has worked as a researcher, political consultant and editor. It is part of the scientific network of the Institute of Sociology “Ivan Hadjiyski”.
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– Mr. Simeonov, is it possible that the collapse of Boyko Borisov’s diplomacy at the UN will affect the outcome of the presidential elections?
– A similar hypothesis was already expressed in an analysis by the “Ivan Hadjiyski” Institute. It was that the situation around Bokova and Georgieva could trigger a “circular” attack against Borisov. We have already seen this – both Krasimir Karakachanov, DPS, BSP, and ABV demanded that someone bear the responsibility. I don’t know if this will affect the outcome of the election, but it is certainly already affecting the psychological environment around them. In my opinion, the authorities are aware that they made something out of nothing. From today’s perspective, she got herself into a mess. I’ll make an even bigger summary. Borisov is a highly intuitive politician, he usually relies on his intuition and I have hardly seen him make a mistake. However, in the last week alone, he made two mistakes, his intuition failed him twice.
– Which was the second one?
– The nomination of Tsetska Tsacheva. With her candidacy, Borisov underestimated the situation surrounding the presidential elections. After so much procrastination and procrastination, the effect of her announcement was: Well, is that what the wait was all about?! I am not saying that GERB will lose this election. I continue to think that the largest party is more likely to win. But I say that after Tsacheva’s nomination it doesn’t look so easy anymore. Tsacheva is a winnable candidate, Fandakova was invincible. However, Borisov decided that it was good for him to take the path of least resistance, as he always did. Without making significant reshuffles, without taking strong people from somewhere and making them presidents, without risking someone emancipating himself tomorrow, what would be the danger with Tomislav Donchev. Without holding elections in Sofia, as would have been necessary if he had chosen Fandakova. Now, however, it may turn out that with Tsacheva he underestimated the potential public reaction.
– Didn’t the situation in the other parties encourage him to raise exactly her?
– Certainly. And he reasoned perfectly logically. The left was supposed to unite – it didn’t. We have several left-wing candidates with the idea of preventing the BSP from collecting the entire opposition, protest and punitive vote. Slavi Trifonov was supposed to appear – he did not appear. Just when all the complicated questions were out of the question and it was time for Borisov to put his decisive trump card on the table to cut the knot once and for all, he chose one of his more unconvincing players. We’ll see. Borisov may once again be proven right, but in this game the stakes suddenly became high for him. Until recently, we thought of these elections as something uninteresting. The interesting thing was before we learned the names and interestingly we waited for it to happen again after them. At the elections itself, we were sure what would happen – GERB would win. Now with Tsacheva’s candidacy, the elections themselves have also become interesting.
– However, is there a candidate who can punish Borisov’s mistake?
– I will divide the answer into two – first and second round. In the first round, party logic is more likely to be reproduced. GERB is well ahead of the others, BSP is second. Run-off between Tsacheva and Gen. Radev seems the most logical. For the other candidates, it will be important what kind of campaign they will make. We need to keep a close eye on developments in several places. In the first place – Krasimir Karakachanov. In these elections, the nationalists united in an unprecedented way. They did it almost once, given that before that they were fighting, insulting, etc. Moreover, the situation is in their favor – society talks about migrants, external dangers. On top of that, they are running a campaign that is radical without being radical. They don’t scare people unnecessarily. They have tamed themselves and speak to two audiences at the same time – both pro-Russian and not so much. Research shows that for now these rhetorics are complementary. We see that their coalition is currently dreaming of a runoff.
The second interesting place is Oresharski, especially if the DPS really stands behind it. The third is Veselin Mareshki. They underestimate him, but let’s not forget that he collected a lot of signatures for a referendum. Mareshki can do anything or nothing, but in no case should he be underestimated. Traicho Traikov and the reformers also received additional energy after Tsacheva’s nomination. Suddenly more right-wing people in Bulgaria may look to him. If GERB’s candidacy was Fandakova or Donchev – hardly, but Tsacheva does not seem to be the most reformist and Euro-Atlantic candidate.
– Which of the following would collect the most votes against GERB in the second round?
– If in the first round the scheme looks like “All against BSP”, in the second it may turn out to be “All against GERB”. Then the one who manages to mobilize the most massive vote against Borisov will have the greatest chance. From today’s perspective, it seems to me that an opposition candidate, such as Gen. Radev. However, it will be very interesting if Karakachanov reaches the runoff. Then GERB with a clear conscience will be able to take votes from DPS. In fact, before the second round, the difference between the first and the second will be of great importance. The price of DPS will depend on this. The difference can be defined by the number of votes for DPS. Then the second round will become extremely interesting. If Karakachanov gets to a runoff, he would more easily gather support from outside because he is a more centrist candidate.
– If the other parties knew that GERB was going to nominate Tsacheva, would they have chosen them?
– All candidates are as per the textbook, with the exception of GERB. In the context of Tsacheva, most candidates look even better than they are on their own. Precise positioning by the BSP – a NATO general, but with a particular opinion, balanced by a pro-European person like Iliana Yotova. It’s the same with the Patriots. The same goes for the reformers – a person with a Euro-Atlantic appearance, an opposition or at least a corrective to Borissov. ABV also acted according to the textbook, in this situation they had to raise their strongest thing. The DPS also works according to textbooks, they actually write these textbooks. ENOUGH stalked to the last.
– What should we expect if GERB loses the elections or does not achieve a convincing victory?
– I will answer in two ways – without and with imagination. If GERB wins by a little, the party will reassert itself, and Borisov will say – even with Tsacheva, we would still beat them. And then we will see something that we have seen after all the elections that GERB wins – most likely Borisov will ask to finish his mandate. This is the most likely, although now Borisov may decide something else. If GERB wins the elections by a large margin, as my colleague Boris Popivanov aptly said, then there will be a “battle for the BSP’s legacy”. Everyone will be coming down hard on Cornelia Ninova, who is currently playing a high stakes game. She tried to both beat everyone and be with everyone. He tried to get Parvanov’s support for Radev, but then rejected him. Tried to join the internal opposition through negotiations with ABV. He tried to please the whole party with an internal poll, and then launched a completely different candidate. If Ninova realizes even a small part of its ambitious plan, it will be a success. But the risk is very high, because tomorrow everyone may attack her.
– And the second part?
– Here begins the second part of the answer. With Tsacheva’s candidacy, Borisov may be reaching out and giving the BSP a chance. Not to beat, but to lose with dignity. The BSP is important to Borisov, he does not want everything on the field to be scattered and after the elections only he and the DPS stand out. For him, this is a dangerous situation. Thinking about tomorrow, he can’t help but realize that one day he might be up against the wall to manage traffic. And the BSP will be a way out. Then Borisov can rediscover PF and RB, but that is a whole separate topic.
There is a conspiracy theory that Borisov wants to fight alone. I don’t believe in her for one very simple reason: Borisov’s first loss could also be his last. If he loses once, he will lose his magical power.
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