Very few studies have so far explored the impact that extreme weather will have on different countries, but recent research conducted in Norway provides relevant data in this regard.
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A new study warns that extreme weather conditions will increase rapidly over the next 20 years.
Scientists from the CICERO Center of Norwegian International Climate Research They claim that almost three quarters of the world population will undergo drastic changes in the weather conditions If emissions are not reduced rapidly of greenhouse gases.
The new study, published in the journal Nature Geoscienceshows how the global warming can combine with normal weather variations to produce decade-long periods of rapid changes in precipitationand the temperatures.
Natural phenomena as The Child can modify weather conditions and cause peaks in rainfall and temperatures. However, as the world is becoming warmer and wetterlos extreme phenomena They begin to move away from what society and ecosystems can support.
Where will extreme weather changes have the greatest impact?
Very few studies have so far explored the impact that extreme weather will have on different countries. Researchers They used four climate simulations different to find out to what extent precipitation and temperature peaks might change over the next two decades.
“We focused on regional changes, due to their greater relevance to the experience of people and ecosystems compared to the global average, and identified the regions expected to experience changes “substantial changes in the rates of one or more extreme event indices over the next few decades,” said Dr. Carley Iles, lead author of the research at CICERO.
In a scenario where little is done for reduce greenhouse gas emissionsregions such as the Mediterraneanhe Northwest and South America and the it is from Asia could experience “sustained and unprecedented rates of change for two or more decades”.
Many of the regions where the most rapid changes are expected include low-income countriesespecially vulnerable for the purposes of extreme weather conditions.
Is it too late to stop these climate changes?
Current climate simulations show that around 70% of the population world -5.6 billion people- should expect changes in temperatures extremes and precipitation in a future scenario with high emissions.
Some changes are already taking place, and the study reveals how quickly will change themeteorological conditions in the next 20 years, even with reductions of emissions.
Even with extensive mitigation efforts in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement20% of the world’s population, or around 1.5 billion people, will continue to be affected. The most drastic changes in this scenario will be limited to the Arabian Peninsula and South Asia.
This has important implications for efforts to Climate adaptation around the world.
“The only way to deal with this is to prepare for a situation with a much higher probability of unprecedented extreme phenomenaalready within the next one to two decades,” says Dr. Bjørn H. Samset of the CICERO Centre for International Climate Research.
Researchers warn of the potentially fatal consequences of these effects of climate change due to causes ranging from heat waves until floods.
