In Australia, grain farmers can look forward to a good harvest.
Daniel Etter
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After the severe restrictions in the previous year, cultivation was expanded by 5%. According to the current forecast, the record harvest in 2022/23 would be missed by 8.75 million tonnes, but the ten-year average would be exceeded by a fifth.
With regard to barley, with which the winter grain harvest in Australia starts in November, ABARES expects production to increase year-on-year by 1.36 million tonnes or 13% to 12.16 million tonnes. The long-term average would therefore be exceeded by 7%. In the three marketing years 2020/21 to 2022/23, however, more than 14 million tonnes of barley were threshed in Australia in each of the three marketing years 2020/21 to 2022/23.
According to the current forecast by ABARES, the rapeseed harvest in 2024/25 will be smaller than last year. At 5.47 million tonnes, it is expected to be a good 460,000 tonnes or 8% below the previous year’s result, but will still exceed the ten-year average by 22%. As with wheat, it would be the fourth largest quantity ever harvested. The main reason for the decline compared to last year is the 7% reduction in cultivation. In the 2022/23 season, a record amount of 8.27 million tonnes of rapeseed was harvested on an area a good 20% larger than currently.
The current crop forecasts from ABARES incorporate the three-month rainfall forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology on August 22nd. According to this, there is a roughly equal chance of above-average or below-average rainfall in most Australian growing regions for the period from September to November. However, according to the meteorologists, most areas are expected to receive sufficient rainfall to support winter crops in the critical development phases.
