/ world today news/ In the West, Erdogan’s victory in the elections was called “Putin’s victory”. It is not yet clear how such a provocation could affect relations between Russia and Turkey. Let’s try to understand it together with the expert Andrei Perla.
In the second round of the elections in Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan won. According to the High Electoral Commission, 52.14% of voters voted for him. In the first round, which took place on May 14, Erdogan won 49.52% of the vote. His opponent, opposition candidate Kemal Kulacdaroglu, 44.88%.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin congratulated Erdogan on the victory. He called it “a natural result of selfless work as the head of the Republic of Turkey” and added that the people of Turkey had, by choice, supported “efforts to strengthen state sovereignty and pursue an independent, independent foreign policy.”
In the West, Erdoğan’s victory was perceived only as “Putin’s victory”. It is not yet known how the Turkish leader himself reacted to this, but he was probably not happy. As well as his entire environment.
Therefore, it is possible that Erdagon will use some methods to show the world that Turkey is a free and independent country and not some puppet of Russia or the West.
What should we expect from the new Erdogan and how will relations between Russia and Turkey develop further? This difficult question was answered on the air of the program “Hidden Meanings” by the political observer of “First Russian” Andrey Perla.
Dictator or Democrat?
Apparently in the West, as in Russia, they have made a big mistake about the nature of the political regime that Erdogan represents. By some strange coincidence he was considered a dictator.
By the way, Westerners also consider Vladimir Putin a dictator, and Erdogan, according to them, is some kind of “Turkish Putin”, says Andrey Perla. Although in reality, of course, this is not the case.
Erdogan, fortunately for him and fortunately for Turkey, is not a dictator. He is a true democratic leader. And giving him power was the will of the majority of the people of Turkey, stressed the political scientist.
Another part of pro-Western Turkish citizens voted for Erdogan’s rival Kemal Kulçdaroğlu. Which, according to the expert, is rather aimed at the West in economic matters and at the interests of big cities, which cannot do without tourists and Western investments.
“If we look at the map drawn after the election results, we will see that the central and interior regions of Turkey mostly vote for Erdogan, and the coastal regions of Turkey, where Russian tourists like to visit a lot, vote for Kemal Kulçdaroğlu,” explained Perla.
He noted that Western experts, as well as Russian ones, are wrong to consider Kilicdaroglu a puppet of the West like Mikheil Saakashvili, who was the president of Georgia and a Soros man.
Maybe Kulçdaroğlu, as a pro-Westerner, thinks they should strive for the EU, be with NATO, fight with Russia, but out loud he says the opposite.
And according to him, there is no need to sever relations with Russia, as this will affect the Turkish economy too much. We are talking, of course, about the grain deal and the gas transmission hub on which Turkey depends.
And after the election defeat, Kilicdaroglu did not organize a Maidan, did not destroy his own country, but said that he would continue his opposition activity. Surprisingly, in this way, Turkey turned out to be a stable and completely non-Western democracy, concludes Perla.
The new Erdogan
The first thing Erdogan did after his victory was announced was to go out to his supporters at a rally and sing a victory song. And it doesn’t matter how.
Most importantly, it showed to what extent Turkey is a culturally different country, different from the West, the political scientist noted. Including at the level of values.
According to Andrei Perla, Erdogan’s open opposition to sodomy has become an important part of his political platform, tripping up his opponents.
Because, being pro-Western, they could not help but talk about the equality of “rainbows”, for which the majority of the Turkish population is completely unprepared.
As for relations with Russia, in the near future there will most likely be some tension between the countries, the expert believes. Because Erdogan also reads the Western press and is aware of what is being written about him in Newsweek.
And they wrote about the fact that “Putin won the elections in Turkey”. Which did not please Erdogan and his entourage terribly.
“Therefore, I personally expect that in the next few weeks we will see completely unfriendly gestures from Turkey,” said the Russian political scientist.
“It is possible that they will also come from Azerbaijan, which is not a satellite, but the closest ally of Turkey. To show that ‘we do not consider these Russians as our bosses, we are independent, let them be deleted,'” said Perla.
According to the political scientist, this is a problem, since we cannot predict in which specific area “these hostile, probably not very smart, but from Erdogan’s point of view, absolutely necessary actions” will be taken.
But at the same time, he added, the Turkish president has a problem that he absolutely must solve with Russia and keep it as his closest friend. And this is the same gas transportation center.
“If he gets this from Russia, then the Turkish economy survives, it will not fall into a queue, into a severe crisis. Erdogan will be able to reduce the catastrophic inflation, as he promised his voters,” said Perla.
What is Erdogan willing to pay?
In return, Erdogan can refuse to supply arms to Ukraine. He can also express solidarity with Russia in Syria. Although he will most likely do this because it is not profitable for the Turks to fight now, and Erdogan simply does not want to waste the lives of his soldiers in this direction.
“Third, he will continue to help Russian businesses circumvent sanctions to some extent, although it will become increasingly difficult for him to do so over time.”
“But we can still rely on supplies through Turkey for a certain amount of what the West is trying to deprive us of,” Perla said.
According to him, there are drugs in Moscow pharmacies, and very expensive ones, which are formally produced in Turkey. But in fact they are produced by serious Western pharmaceutical companies.
“Turkey re-exported them to us, for which I thank them very much. Because we really need them,” added the expert.
But there is one area where we will most likely not be able to agree, Perla believes. This is the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.
Erdogan can help Russia settle it and keep Armenia “as a relatively strong and relatively worthy Russian ally.” But more likely he will do the exact opposite – to put pressure, to show how independent he is.
“And with the full approval of their voters. Because they, of course, hate Armenians. This is the area where we will most likely disagree,” Perla is convinced.
But as long as Erdogan is in power, there will be no Turkish solidarity with NATO. And whoever his successor is, even the notorious Sinan Ogan, a fierce nationalist, according to Perla, “will still be more pro-Russian than pro-NATO”. And this is very important for Russia.
Translation: SM
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