China’s population is aging and shrinking; fertility rate is falling

Beijing. For more than seven decades, China was the world’s most populous country. Not only did it lose this place to India last year, but its population has been shrinking since 2022, and expectations of ensuring the replacement of an aging workforce are met with resistance from young people, especially city dwellers, who are not interested in starting a family or having children. One reason is that they consider life to be more expensive than it was for their parents and grandparents; added to this is that parenthood is also seen as an emotional responsibility.

It is a mix of change of priorities and uncertainty about the cost of living, according to a survey of young students living in Beijing. In this group, which is tiny in a population of 1.41 billion 710 thousand people, the economy is perceived as a restriction to having children, but there is also resistance against what is considered a traditional chinese family. Instead, the search for the emotional stability y personal and professional development have priority.

Two million fewer in 2023

My definition of a traditional Chinese family is a husband who is responsible for earning money, a wife who takes care of household chores, a son and a daughter. Based on this definition, I would say that I don’t want a traditional family. I don’t want to be financially dependent on others and it would be fair if the couple could share responsibilities in all aspects.explains Silvia, a university student of just 20 years old. For her, as for other young women, any prospect of starting a family and/or having children involves a dilemma between professional development and a hint of pessimism about their economic future.

At least since 1950 and until the first quarter of 2023, China was the most populous country on the planet. That place is now occupied by India, which according to estimates by the United Nations (UN), reached 1,425,775,000 inhabitants in April of last year, surpassing the Chinese population by more than 15 million. This gap is not due to the fact that the number of inhabitants in the first nation is growing more than in the second.

China’s population has been shrinking over the past couple of years. In 2022, it fell by 850,000 people, and in 2023, by just over 2 million, as 9.02 million people were born and 11.1 million died, according to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The birth rate fell 4.7 percent last year, while deaths rose 6.6 percent.

According to a note from the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, China’s population is expected to reach 1.313 billion people in 2050, 30 percent of whom will be over 65 years old. However, a decade earlier, in 2040, the population of older adults will exceed that of young people under 25 years old. This implies new pressures that are already being discussed in the country, such as the cost of pensions and a shrinking workforce.

In 2023, the labor force as a proportion of the total population was 55.2 percent, a far cry from the levels of 2005 and 2006, when the number of employed persons exceeded 59 percent, according to World Bank data.

The UN estimates that China’s population size will continue to decline and could fall below one billion by the end of the century. Subsidies are currently in place to encourage childbearing. In the 1970s, the high birth rate in the then low-income country led to campaigns to Later, longer, lessand that of only childin force between 1980 and 2015.

These policies, along with investments in human capital, changes in women’s roles, and other factors, contributed to the decline in China’s fertility rate in the 1970s and to the more gradual declines that followed in the 1980s and 1990s.explains the UN note.

Society somehow pushes us to think of family as an essential and definitive goal in life, but I personally don’t think I’m ready to take that step. Right now I’d rather enjoy my life, explore new experiences and continue to develop myself both personally and professionally.says Inés, 24.

Economic independence

What is happening in Chinese society? The same thing is happening in many developing countries, such as Mexico: women’s access to higher levels of education and thus economic independence, as well as a change in cultural patterns. Traditional family is no funditch Ja 21-year-old girl. I’m not sure I can offer the best to the next generation, and above all I want a more pleasant life..

I can barely tolerate the existence of another person in my private life, let alone a commitment of that kind.says Zori, 24.I need to be able to take care of myself, both financially and emotionally, in order to be able to raise a child. I don’t want that responsibility, which is unfortunately still considered part of the mother’s obligations in most situations.he adds.

In addition to the break with the feminization of caregiving tasks, Zori highlights that the cost of living is perceived as higher than in the generations of her parents and grandparents. “Even though we are paid more, things are more expensive. To be honest, I think our generation also has more needs for things that our parents and grandparents do not consider essential. We might spend a lot on ‘meaningless things’ (like entertainment), but in reality they are important parts that improve our standard of living,” she says.

There is no country whose GDP per capita has grown as much as China. According to the World Bank, between 1960 and 2023 this indicator increased by 5,010.5 percent. In Mexico, the increase was only 146 percent in the same period. However, the perception prevails that economic stability is not guaranteed enough to support a family with children.

The topic of having children is tied to many considerations, and one of them is certainly economics. I often think about how my generation faces financial challenges that perhaps were not as acute for my parents or grandparents. The cost of housing, high standard of living, and economic instability are all factors that influence my decision not to rush into starting a family or having children.says Inés.

However, beyond all the external factors that can be listed, the student resolves: I feel like I’m still in the process of learning more about myself, the world around me, and what I really want in life. Having children is a huge responsibility, and I’m not sure I’m ready to take it on right now. It’s important to me that when I make such momentous decisions, I do so with confidence and inner clarity, not just to meet social or family expectations..