Turkey reportedly has a new proposal regarding its Russian S-400 Triumf air defense missile systems that it hopes will convince the United States to lift its ban on the F-35.
“We will put them in boxes, you will inspect them,” Ankara reportedly suggested to Washington, according to a report published Tuesday in the Turkish daily Cumhuriyet.
The United States suspended Turkey from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program and blocked it from purchasing any of the fifth-generation stealth fighters in 2019 after Ankara took delivery of the Russian missile system.
Washington repeatedly told Ankara that the S-400 and F-35 were incompatible, warning that having the Russian system in Turkey could allow Moscow to acquire sensitive information about the stealth capabilities of US fighters and identify potential weaknesses for exploitation.
Turkey tested S-400 radars in late 2019 and test-fired a missile the following year. Other than that, it never integrated it into its broader air defenses or put it into operation as a standalone system. Former Defense Minister Hulusi Akar insisted in 2022 that the missiles were ready to go when needed.
Earlier this month, a former Turkish minister suggested that Turkey could sell its S-400s to India or Pakistan, reasoning that a sale to either country would not alienate Russia. Turkish officials have rejected previous proposals to export the systems to third countries. If the Cumhuriyet article is accurate, this stance has not changed.
However, recommending that the systems remain in storage as a solution is not entirely new and may not convince Washington to reverse its decision on the Turkish F-35s.
That doesn’t mean the US isn’t open to a possible solution. Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland said in January that Washington “would be happy to welcome Turkey back into the F-35 family” if Ankara can satisfactorily resolve the S-400 issue. Other US officials have since confirmed that this stance remains unchanged.
Turkey’s alleged offer to keep the S-400s in storage with an inspection agreement suggests that Ankara wants to strike a deal with Washington. However, the US is unlikely to settle for anything less than Turkey’s complete withdrawal of the S-400s from the country.
Moreover, this supposed solution is not the first time Turkey has proposed something along these lines. For example, former Defense Minister Akar suggested in 2021 that Washington and Ankara could replicate “the model used for the S-300 in Crete.”
Greece has S-300PMU-1 missile systems based on its Mediterranean island. Initially ordered from Russia by the Republic of Cyprus, the missiles were eventually diverted and stored on the Greek island to defuse a crisis in the late 1990s, when Turkey threatened to preemptively destroy them once they reached Cyprus.
Athens kept its legacy S-300s stored in Crete for more than a decade before testing them in 2013. Turkish officials often compare Ankara’s acquisition of S-400s to Greece’s possession of S-300s, dubiously hinting at an unfair double standard at Turkey’s expense.
In adopting the Cretan model, Akar had suggested that Turkey could use its S-400s “depending on the state of threats,” correctly noting that Greece’s S-300s “are not always operational.”
Allowing the US to control the stored S-400s, likely in areas far from any airbase hosting F-35s, and presumably notifying Washington in advance of when, if at all, they will be deployed or relocated, is likely what Ankara currently has in mind.
Analysts have previously expressed skepticism that the Turkish F-35s and S-400s would have been “placed together” if Turkey had received both. In any case, the fact that the Turkish S-400s are idle and stored under US supervision would further reduce the risk that Russia could obtain information about the F-35s or anything else.
The United States established a program with Pakistan that allowed American personnel to oversee the end use of Pakistani F-16s that Washington sold to Islamabad after 2001.
“A similar program could serve as a model to monitor any future Turkish use of the F-35 and ensure a very circumscribed deployment of the S-400,” noted the War on the Rocks 2020 analysis that revealed this agreement.
Turkey might see such a deal as worthwhile if it reopens the F-35 option. But then again, the US is unlikely to settle for anything less than Turkey removing the systems and all their components from the country. Washington would also likely not settle for Turkey storing them somewhere like the breakaway Turkish Republic of Cyprus, an entity recognised only by Ankara.
Arguably the most notable part of Cumhuriyet’s report is its claim that Ankara still wants the F-35A and F-35B models. Prior to its ban, Turkey had requested 100 F-35As for its air force. It also expressed interest in acquiring 19 to 20 F-35Bs, the short-takeoff and vertical landing version, for the TCG Anadolu, a Turkish amphibious assault ship based on Spain’s Juan Carlos I.
Following its retirement of the F-35, Turkey has focused on developing its indigenous TF Kaan fighter for its air force. It has also developed naval drones and a jet-powered unmanned fighter – the Bayraktar TB3 and Kizilelma, respectively – for Anadolu.
Turkey will go ahead with most, if not all, of these projects. However, it may have concluded that acquiring an F-35 would still bring it substantial benefits.
F-35Bs for its navy would provide it with a manned fighter to enhance the fleet’s air defense. F-35As for the air force could also go a long way toward replacing many of Turkey’s aging F-16s, even if Ankara ultimately acquires significantly fewer than 100 aircraft.
Ultimately, Turkey would no longer need to rely solely on the production of the TF Kaan, which it also intends to offer for export, in large quantities, to replace these fourth-generation fighters in the coming decades.
Paul Iddon
