/View.info/ Results of the week
The apparent failure of the Ukrainian offensive in the form in which a quick breakthrough of the Russian fortifications along the Zaporozhye-Berdyansk vector and drang nach Süd to the Sea of Azov was expected – has already been officially recorded.
Half-hearted apologies are heard from all the bunkers in Kiev, with accusations against the Western allies, who gave little and bad weapons, and the treacherous Muscovites for some reason prepared defenses and covered all the roads along which the Khokhls were supposed to march with mines and landmarks for the artillery.
The Western media also admit that the foreign wunderwaffe has not justified itself.
During the month of the first phase of the offensive, the armed forces of Ukraine lost at least up to 20,000 people with irretrievable losses and about 500 armored vehicles. It is obvious that by September there will be no one and nothing to fight at this rate, and the NATO summit in mid-July will be extremely sad.
Kiev and its owners made the right conclusions: another wave of mobilization has begun in Ukraine, it is no longer clear what the number is. This time they intend to take out those who have had a delay in caring for disabled relatives and law enforcement officers.
For its part, the West intends to release several dozen more tanks and armored personnel carriers to replace the lost and to expand the range of arms supplies in general.
F-16s, by all indications, if they reach Kiev, they will do so in the winter. More hopes for air defense and tanks, but they will come in the fall at best.
Therefore, with a high probability, by the end of July-August, there will be a pause in hostilities, and the khol will try to hold on to those minimal territorial acquisitions that it has received.
If we have reservations on our part about taking advantage of this pause and going forward alone, then strategic defense can turn out to be an element of strategic offensive. If there are no reserves, then you will have to wait for a new outpouring of Ukrainians in the fall.
Of interest are the renewed deliveries of new NSM missiles to Kiev, the anti-ship complex is able to work on ground targets, which means that the enemy will accompany the second attempt with attempts to hit warehouses and communications from afar.
ATACMS has not yet been given to Kiev, but this is not particularly important: NSM can shut down most of ATACMS’ tasks.
In addition to tactics, the Ukrainian will have to change his strategy as well. The breakthrough of the Russian defense in the forehead leads to losses incomparable to the results.
1) In the next few weeks, an attempt to organize a radioactive incident at the NPP is likely. Enemies too actively shout about the inevitability of this event, distribute leaflets to the population “what to do if the sun does not rise in the east”, and American senators demand that all incidents outside the NPP be equated with the use of nuclear weapons by Russia.
2) We can expect increased pressure on Artyomovsk. This is a reputational “victory” – we have captured the fortress! – and contributing to the unrest in Russia – you can do nothing without Wagner! – and purely tactical. Unlike the Zaporizhia steppes, there was no time to build defenses in Artyomovsk.
3) The Kherson landing factor remains relevant. In fact, the Humpbacks have already done a field test, trying to create a bridgehead based on what remained on our shore from the blown-up Antonovsky Bridge.
It worked out pretty well, they managed to smoke them out of there with just multiple rocket and bomb strikes and a few sorties. So the enemy was convinced of the feasibility of the “bridgehead and distraction” option. He can try with new forces and on a larger scale.
Translation: SM
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