Presumably thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been in Russia for almost three weeks. The Kremlin troops were surprised in the Kursk region on August 6 and have been on the defensive ever since. What is Ukraine planning? Why is the Kursk offensive so risky?
On August 6, Ukrainian soldiers crossed Putin’s reddest of all lines: they invaded Russia with tanks, conquered and controlled part of the Kursk region for almost three weeks – about 1200 square kilometers, slightly larger than Berlin. For two weeks, military observers speculated about the motive behind the impressive but also risky offensive.
Last Sunday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented on the background for the first time. Kiev wants to create a “buffer zone” on the enemy’s territory, said the Ukrainian president. In other words: Ukrainian troops have marched across the border to prevent Russian attacks from the border area on the north of Ukraine and to get back into a better position on their own territory.
One thing is already certain: the surprise attack – according to Ukrainian sources up to 35 kilometers inland – is a great moral victory for Ukraine, its troops and the population. The offensive also impresses and influences its supporters in the West. The advance proves that Ukraine is capable of carrying out large-scale combined arms operations two and a half years after the start of the war. It also gives it military breathing room. “Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has been testing the limits set by the West and pushing them back. In Kursk, it did so again,” says Russia expert Stefan Meister from the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in an interview with ntv. “In the end, it always came down to the Americans and the Germans allowing Ukraine more. If they had done that earlier, Ukraine would not be in such a precarious military situation.”
Ukraine destroys bridges
What was not possible at any point in the summer of 2023 is now possible. The small but effective advance into Russian territory “reflects significant operational improvements” in the Ukrainian armed forces, analyzed the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). The Kursk offensive is in “stark contrast” to the botched summer offensive of the previous year.
What is striking is the better coordination between the various groups in the military – the cooperation of artillery, armor, electronic warfare, drone support and elite units such as the 80th Airborne Brigade made the surprise success in the Kursk region possible.
But what comes after the surprise? “Ukraine is now trying to hold on to the space it has gained,” explains Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces on ntv. “That means Ukraine is now moving from the offensive to the defensive in order to buy time and be able to react to possible Russian counterattacks.” Ukraine has begun to destroy bridges along the Sejm River, which flows through the Kursk region. “This river offers itself as a possible line of defense against Russian attacks,” Reisner analyzes.
In addition, Ukraine is trying to keep its supply and delivery lines open in order to send in ammunition, equipment and more soldiers. But this will be difficult for Kiev’s troops because the Russians can exploit their air superiority and the Ukrainians have little heavy engineering equipment at their disposal.
120,000 Russians evacuated
But the longer the Ukrainians stay in Kursk, the more problematic the situation could become for Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin. Because Ukraine is suddenly bringing death and destruction to Russia. This is also presumably one of the goals of the offensive: Putin can no longer hide the war from his people.
Moscow has already had to evacuate around 120,000 Russians from the Kursk region because of the Ukrainian attack. Even young conscripts suddenly have to fight. Until now, Putin wanted to spare the recruits from the war. “That was the promise made by the Kremlin. But right at the beginning of the attack on the Kursk region, we saw that conscripts were standing at the border. They were shown as prisoners of war on Ukrainian television and in social media,” reports ntv correspondent Rainer Munz from Russia.
“Russian exile media are reporting that conscripts are being put under pressure to sign contracts as temporary soldiers for a year. After four weeks of basic military service, you can sign a contract,” Munz explains. However, he does not expect a widespread wave of conscript recruitment in order to avoid causing unrest in the country. “That would cause a lot of excitement among parents here in Russia.”
Mass bombings possible
The Kremlin troops have not yet managed to regain control of Kursk. According to reports, Ukraine has sent around 5,000 to 6,000 soldiers to the region. If Russia wants to recapture it, Colonel Reisner estimates that the army would have to provide around 20,000 to 25,000 soldiers for the counter-offensive. Moscow has not done this so far, but it is a realistic scenario for the near future – as is the Russians pushing the Ukrainians back through sheer volume of bombing.
“It could be that the Russians simply set the timeline and bomb the Ukrainians in the next few weeks to such an extent that they have to return to their territory,” Reisner presents the worst-case scenario from Kiev’s perspective. In that case, Ukraine would have “used up many reserves that it could possibly have used more intelligently in the Donbass,” Reisner explains. “But that remains speculation at the moment. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens over the next few weeks.”
“It is not foreseeable that Ukraine will be able to hold ground”
However, military experts do not believe that the creation of a buffer zone is Ukraine’s only goal. Reisner is also convinced: Ukraine sees further opportunities in the Kursk offensive, such as a better starting position for possible ceasefire negotiations at some point in the future.
But that also means that Ukraine would have to control and defend the area for months or maybe even years. Logistically, that would be a mammoth task – and therefore unlikely. “At the moment, it’s a pipe dream because it’s not at all foreseeable that Ukraine will be able to hold on to these territorial gains in Russia,” says military expert Ralph Thiele in an interview with ntv. “They surprised everyone, broke into Russia and can move relatively freely. But that freedom of movement is slowly coming to an end and they are now digging themselves in.”
“Russian momentum not yet broken”
Even though the Ukrainians have taken the Russians by surprise with the Kursk offensive, the success or failure of the operation will only be decided in the next few weeks. Then it will become clear whether Kiev can provoke a partial withdrawal of Russian soldiers from other critical locations on the front in the Donbass by marching across the border, which will allow the Ukrainians to benefit on a broad front. So far, the Russian offensives in eastern Ukraine have not let up. But according to observations by the US Institute for War Studies (ISW), the Russian military leadership has now moved the first troops from at least the southern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhia to strengthen the defense of Kursk.
“General Syrskyj, the Ukrainian commander, recently said that the Russians are advancing an average of 4.8 kilometers every day in the Donbass, while at the same time Ukraine has advanced 3.2 kilometers every day in the Kursk area. This shows that the Russians’ momentum has not yet been broken,” Reisner analyzes the dilemma on ntv. Now Ukraine must wait and see whether Russia will have to shift significant forces in the coming days and weeks. “If that is not the case and Russia is able to control Kursk from its pool of strategic reserves, then the offensive will not be nearly as successful as Ukraine intended.”
It is far from certain that the Ukrainians’ moral success will also become a strategic-tactical one. The Kursk offensive remains impressive, but risky. At least Kiev has proven to its Western allies that it is worth continuing to support the Ukrainian army.
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