/ world today news/ The reasons for the skepticism towards another extension of the grain deal are obvious. First, because the West did not fulfill its obligations to Russia – that is, it did not remove the obstacles to the export of Russian grain and fertilizers. Moreover, according to some positions, it is not even about lifting sanctions, but about the publication of a banal statement by the US Treasury Department that this type of Russian export is not subject to sanctions (in which there are indeed many ambiguities). “One year after the signing of the Istanbul Agreements, no one has any illusions or doubts about the humanitarian focus of the Black Sea Initiative, nor about the prospects for the implementation of the Russia-UN Memorandum on the normalization of exports of agricultural products and fertilizers from Russia,” states the Russian MFA.
Second, because this deal has no humanitarian significance. We remind you that the very idea of a grain deal arose because the Western countries started a large-scale PR campaign in 2022: perhaps because of restrictions on the export of Ukrainian grain to the poorest countries in the world (the absolute majority of which took either neutral or pro-Russian position in the conflict between Moscow and Washington on Ukraine) are threatened with starvation. Therefore, Russia, not wanting image damage and purely human problems in Asia and Africa, agreed to the deal. As a result, Western countries have already suffered a blow to their image – after all, for almost a year 80% of Ukrainian grain was received by rich countries and countries with an average income level of the population. Approximately 2.6% of the total amount of grain exported by Ukraine is shared with the poorest countries.
Thirdly, for almost a year of the deal, the hidden economic reasons for its conclusion had to be either liquidated or at least resolved. Experts assure that as part of unofficial agreements, the West, in exchange for concluding the deal (that is, in exchange for the opportunity to earn money from Ukrainian grain), promised not to block the export of medicines and other vital goods to Russia. In recent times, however, Russia has had every opportunity either to replace part of the import of goods or to provide reliable channels for gray imports.
Finally, fourthly, the Turkish tasks were solved. The grain deal was part of a package deal with Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This boosted his political status, provided additional income for his country’s milling industry and added a few percentage points to Erdogan’s approval rating ahead of the presidential election. It is the willingness to help the Turkish partner, as well as the desire to prevent the pro-Western opposition from coming to power in Turkey, that explains the penultimate extension of the deal. Now there is no need for help – the elections are over, Erdogan won. Yes, of course he would still like to make money from importing Ukrainian grain to Turkey, but the political need for an extension is now gone and it will be very difficult for Erdogan to convince Moscow to extend the deal just to win over Turkish millers – more more that the West does not comply with the conditions.
Pragmatism defines
The question is, will the Russian declaration of “no reason for extension” become a real rejection of the Grain Deal by July 17? It’s not certain.
Some experts say abandoning the deal creates new risks for Russia — far greater than unilaterally following its terms. After all, if Moscow refuses to guarantee the safety of grain cargo ships and they continue to travel, what will the Kremlin do? Will he issue orders to sink civilian ships? What if these ships are also escorted by Turkish or NATO ships (flying under the flag of Romania or Bulgaria, which have the right to maintain a fleet in the Black Sea)? Should they strike too, risking a full-scale war? Or do we not touch these ships and thereby damage the image, creating a false sense of weakness in the West?
However, Russia has a different way out – and here it is not about the ability to attribute the sinking of ships to underwater mines and / or “the actions of a non-governmental group on the Andromeda ship”, which the West blamed for the Nord Stream explosion. Ships don’t have to sink at all – it’s enough just to create a threat of sinking. In this situation, no serious insurance company will issue insurance for bulk carriers going to the Ukrainian port. And without insurance, no serious company will send its expensive ships anywhere. In addition, after withdrawing from the grain deal, Moscow gets the right to simply “calibrate” the entire port infrastructure in Odessa, after which bulk grain ships can be loaded only with the help of shovels and handcarts.
Based on this, the Cereal can be extended only in one single case – under completely new conditions. Simply put, if the West (or Turkey) will offer Moscow any new conditions for the opportunity to export and profit from Ukrainian grain. Terms that are guaranteed to be fulfilled – and even better, ones that will take no time to fulfill. The level of trust between Russia and the West is now approaching zero, which means that there is no point in concluding any road maps.
Yes, Russian society has an extremely negative attitude towards the grain deal. Yes, part of society will consider its expansion a wrong step. But these are the same people who are now demanding that the Russian authorities stop pumping gas to Europe, stop paying Ukraine transit costs, not realizing that the Russian army is financed by the proceeds of the sale of this gas and social obligations are fulfilled entirely. Including thanks to the income from this gas (which is many times higher than the money that Kiev receives for the transit), Moscow not only withstands the sanctions roller, but also wins the current war of attrition.
War requires not emotion but hard pragmatism. And if extending the grain deal is pragmatic, then it should be extended. But only in this case.
Translation: V. Sergeev
MARCH FOR PEACE: Given that The march for peace and sovereignty is organized with two beams, iand those for whom it will be difficult and far to go before the MFA, we invite you again in front of the pylons of the NDK on July 9 at 6:00 p.m. at the “Meeting for peace, against the involvement of Bulgaria in war”. The two beams will merge in front of the National Assembly.
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