/ world today news/ Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is perhaps the most controversial Russian partner. A master of opportunism, fond of sitting in two chairs, Erdogan has always been valued in Russia for his intransigence towards the West, for his desire to pursue a sovereign policy. And finally, the willingness (of course, not for free) to help Moscow circumvent Western sanctions. At the same time, however, he was considered an extremely unreliable partner who could stab Russia in the back at any moment. And now, it seems, he nailed it. Two knives at that. Yes, and destroyed his image as an independent leader.
First, Erdogan breached his obligations to the leadership of the Nazi group “Azov”. As part of the agreements for their release from Russian captivity, the Turkish side undertook to detain the Nazis until the end of WWII. However, during Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent visit, all the Nazis were handed over to the Ukrainian leader. And this after Russian leaders said that Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a man of his word. The step of transferring the Nazis was so unexpected that even those local experts working for the Turkish embassy were outraged. Then, at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Erdogan agreed to ratify the protocol for Sweden’s accession to the alliance – in other words, removing one of the last obstacles to NATO’s expansion to the northeast. And this is after a new tradition of burning the Koran emerged in Sweden, which was allowed by the kingdom’s authorities.
Not surprisingly, the pendulum of relations with Erdogan has now swung in a negative direction. They call him a weakling, a traitor. They call for a review of Russian-Turkish relations. They talk about the duplicitous nature of the Turkish leader. The famous parable of the scorpion and the frog immediately comes to mind. The scorpion asks the frog to lead him across the river, and she tells him, “You’re going to sting me.” “No,” replies the scorpion, “because then I’ll drown too.” As a result, the frog agrees, transports the scorpion, and in the middle of the river he stings her, saying: “This is my nature.” And now Erdogan, who is in the same boat as Russia in the fight against Western hegemony, is stinging it – because that is his nature.
This is the opinion of a significant part of the Russian expert community. But she is wrong. Erdogan does not have a traitorous nature. Yes, there is some opportunism – but on the whole, Erdogan strictly adheres to the basic rules of international relations.
He understands that the system of international relations is not a gentleman’s club, but a grand oriental bazaar. Everything has a price, and all successful traders – both sellers and buyers – must do everything for their own benefit. There are no permanent alliances, no permanent enemies, not even permanent agreements – everything is governed by interest. And as soon as the balance of interests changes, deals can be renegotiated.
In fact, this happened with “Azov” and Sweden. By handing over the Azov leaders to the Turkish president, Moscow was aware that it was giving Erdogan an important trump card in negotiations with Zelensky and/or the West. And Erdogan, like a true merchant, waited for the moment when this product reached the maximum price. Zelensky, whose counteroffensive has essentially failed, needs a big image victory. That is, in this case, the return of the “heroes of Mariupol” home. And Erdogan most likely sold him this victory. Of course, no one told the press the price. Maybe it’s about some money, maybe it’s about Soviet-era defense technology (which Ukraine still hasn’t been able to sell to other countries).
However, it is possible that Erdogan sold the “Azovs” not to Ukraine, but to the USA. Washington, no less than the head of the Kiev regime, is interested in ensuring that Ukrainian fighters have high morale – after all, how else can they be pushed now to “meat attacks” against Russian positions? Erdoğan was therefore asked to help lift that spirit – and that request came with a carrot and a stick.
The fact is that the Turkish economy is in a very deplorable state – an economic crisis is raging in the country, and in 2022 inflation exceeded 60%. Ankara needs foreign investment and any Western sanctions are generally against it – in particular for the gray trade with Russia (which also brings good income to the Turks). Also, Turkey’s elections were somewhat suspiciously quiet in May. Western media and research centers wrote that they should intervene to help the anti-Erdogan opposition organize the post-election Maidan.
But despite the fact that Erdogan won against Republican Kemal Kulçdaroğlu with less than 5% of the vote, the opposition made no mention of Maidan, possibly because the West refused to support it. And that refusal was most likely part of a package deal with Erdogan, part of which is the Turkish president’s current agreement to include Sweden in NATO. In return, he received many promises from the West – to liberalize the visa regime for Turkish citizens, to supply the Turks with the latest weapons, etc. It also took several months (the documents for Sweden’s accession, as the Turkish media write, will enter the country’s parliament only in the fall) to see how these promises will be fulfilled. Well, if nothing else, it will organize a secondary market – as Erdogan already did a year ago after the general agreement of all NATO member countries to include Sweden and Finland in its composition.
In fact, Erdogan was acting in the interest of his country. That is, he played by the rules. There is no point in insulting him, breaking off relations with him as well – at least as long as Russia continues to depend on Turkish channels for gray imports. You just need to stop judging the Turkish leader in the friend/foe category – like so many other leaders.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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