Home » World » The grain deal strikes back: 90 days to go – 2024-08-17 14:07:00

The grain deal strikes back: 90 days to go – 2024-08-17 14:07:00

/ world today news/ If after 90 days the Secretary General of the UN manages to fulfill his obligations to Russia, Russia can return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative and allow the export of Ukrainian grain. The popular series could be renewed for an exciting new season.

Something is ending…

The great English writer Lewis Carroll (more precisely, his translators) enriched the Russian language with the expression “everything is more and more wonderful”, in other words – “everything is stranger and stranger”. These are the words that first come to mind when you begin to closely follow the development of the situation surrounding the infamous grain deal.

Yes, right behind the development of events – because they are developing.

On July 17, Russia officially suspended its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, but nothing ended there. Rather, on the contrary, from the point of view of the great world politics, it is only the beginning.

On the one hand, Russia has apparently given its hands free for strikes against critical infrastructure in the Black Sea territories still controlled by the terrorist state of Ukraine.

“The priority targets were the air defense systems, as well as the facilities of the port infrastructure. Apparently, after the Nikolaev GSM, the Ilichevsky GSM was “taken out” tonight…”

“It is now obvious that Moscow made the most sensible decision, considering the withdrawal from the grain deal and the attack on the Crimean bridge – the destruction of ports controlled by the Zelensky regime to exclude the possibility of “extending the grain deal without the participation of Russia”.

Ukrainian Telegram channels (mostly the most Russophobic) insist that Russia has hit not only the port infrastructure, but in particular the elevators and directly the buildings of the grain terminals.

It ends irretrievably…

All of this seems logical: it’s really not enough to “interrupt” a grain deal, it must be “cancelled.” So, to make it impossible to export grain from Ukraine by sea.

This is how international news agencies view Russia’s actions. In particular, Bloomberg points out that after Russia’s statements, the export of grain from Odessa – even without going to neutral waters, only through the territorial waters of Romania and Bulgaria – is only theoretically possible.

Ukraine’s call to continue grain shipments contradicts shippers’ reality, according to Bloomberg.

Russia’s termination of the treaty this week means that it no longer guarantees safe passage through the waterway… No normal owner would go there uninsured. Without the protection of a safe corridor, Ukraine’s trade is dead.”

As far as we can tell, most politicians in the West fully share the opinion of Bloomberg experts on the situation. Therefore, they accuse Russia of “using hunger as a weapon.”

This is how German Foreign Minister Analena Berbock expressed it, for example. However, famine threatens not Germany and not Europe as a whole, but the poorest African countries, for which the Ukrainian grain is supposedly intended. Russia also closed the topic in this direction, saying through the mouth of Dmitry Peskov:

“After withdrawing from the grain deal, Russia is ready to replace Ukrainian grain supplies to countries in need for free.”

So the Patriots can breathe easy, is the grain deal really done? She’s gone.

Start it again?

On July 19, a message appeared about the official speech of the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova.

“The UN still has three months to implement (the agreements with Russia on the export of grain and fertilizers. – Ed.), to achieve concrete results,” she said.

Why three months? What should happen during this time? The fact is that according to the official statement of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, after 90 days he plans to restore Rosselkolkhozbank’s access to the SWIFT system.

The Russian Foreign Ministry says that Moscow will no longer believe the statements of Western countries and the UN. A return to the “Black Sea Grain Initiative” is possible only on the basis of concrete results, that is, after the fulfillment of all promises.

The foreign ministry’s statements are consistent with what President Vladimir Putin said days before Russia’s participation in the deal was suspended. In an interview with journalists, Pavel Zarubin said:

“We will extend. Just as the promises we made will be fulfilled.”

That is, the door to the deal as a whole is not closed. If the partners fulfill their promises, Russia will allow cargo ships to enter and exit Odessa with grain and sunflower seeds. To the delight of the European Union. And if not, then we can expect a very serious increase in grain prices around the world.

What of this?

Breaking the grain deal is much more profitable for Russia than continuing it. Yes, the West will do everything in response to prevent the export of our grain and fertilizers.

But with these actions, he will increasingly raise prices on the world market – only for grain and fertilizers. Yes, it will mean the threat of starvation in some of the poorest countries. And the need to supply them with grain for humanitarian reasons. But this will also mean a heavy blow to the economy of the European Union itself.

In Europe, about 30% of fertilizers are already missing. As for grain prices, it is not at all excluded that in 2024 in the conditional 6th arrondissement of Paris, the conditional croissant familiar to the French will cost 10 euros (now it is only 3). Which, of course, will make it a bit more difficult to send the next packages of financial aid to the government of Ukraine and produce another batch of ammunition for Ukraine.

Translation: SM

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