ROME – Zero point growth in GDP in the second quarter, employment shows the first signs of crisis, due to increasingly weak demand, industrial production falls back in June: the data Eurostat they are not going well for the second part of the year. And if GDP is well in line with expectations, with growth of 0.3% in the Eurozone and the EU-27 in the quarterly comparison, and annual growth of 0.6% for the Eurozone and 0.8% for the Union to all, the industrial production a 0.1% decrease in June on the month in the euro area, and it fell 3.9% in the annual comparison (without 3.2% for the EU-27) which was unexpected, certainly worse than expected. Italy is also doing badly, even if the fall is more limited, -2.6%.
Analysts shake their heads, and some are already revising the forecasts for 2024 and especially for 2025 down, starting with Oxford Economics which for next year will range from 1.7 to 1.4%. On the one hand there is the decline in internal consumption, reduced by uncertainty and rates still high, on the other hand signs of decline in world trade, which appeared a few days ago with the PMI index: industrial production can only decline further, with the shadow cast on the still positive labor market. In fact, Eurostat data for the second quarter shows an employment increase of 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU compared to the previous quarter, although that was a slowdown compared to the 0.3% in January and March. However, hiring intentions reported by companies worsened significantly in July.
For Italy, GDP is even lower than the EU average in the second quarter (0.2%), a figure that makes the government’s goals and forecasts increasingly uncertain, while industrial production is better performance. However, the concerns of entrepreneurs are increasing for the coming months: in the latest rapid survey by Confindustria the percentage of companies expecting a decline in production rose to 23.4% in July, compared to 12.7% in June. And the staff involved in the emergency boards is growing Mimi: they are now higher than 60 thousand, to which can be added, the CGIL estimates, at least 120 thousand in danger.
Regarding the Italian labor market, special attention must be paid not only to the trend, which continues to grow, but above all to the quality of employment and the level of wages, often reduced with downward negotiation driven by a large number of unrepresentative acronyms. There Secretary of the Democratic Party Elly Schlein republishing the bill on the minimum wage: “In Italy there are more than 3 million poor workers, to whom Giorgia Meloni and the right have turned their backs.” – he writes in a speech published on social media -. They have finally introduced our unitary proposal to introduce the minimum wage in our country as well. A law that strengthens collective bargaining, fights against pirated contracts and establishes that less than 9 euros an hour is not work, but exploitation. That’s why we want to bring it back to Parliament with the strength of thousands of your signatures.”
2024-08-16 19:52:11
#growth #struggling #employment #slowing #Factories #retreat
