by Giuseppe Gagliano –
Libya is currently one step away from war for several reasons that arise from the complex political and military situation in the country. Despite the mediations after years of conflict and above all because of the fact that the 130 tribes largely govern themselves and join changing alliances and then left, the political division remains true: the country is divided between the government of Tripoli, supported by local militias and supported by the international community, and the Libyan National Army (LNA) of Khalifa Haftar, who controls on much of the east and south, which is based in Tobruk and hosts the Parliament. This division created a power vacuum and prevented the formation of a stable and unified government, increasing tensions between the various factions.
There is fierce competition for control of natural resources, especially oil and gas. Haftar is trying to expand his control over strategic areas such as Ghadames, which is rich in energy resources. This attempt to consolidate economic and military power by Haftar increases the risk of armed conflict with the forces of Tripoli, who want to control these vital areas.
Another crucial factor is the influence of foreign powers, who have different interests in Libya. Russia’s support for Haftar through the Wagner group (now Africa Corps) and Turkey’s support for the Tripoli government further complicates the situation, creating fertile ground for an indirect conflict between these powers. through their local friends.
The political process is stagnant, with elections regularly postponed. This has fueled dissatisfaction and mistrust among the various groups, who see war as a way to resolve the stalemate and gain power. The recent decision by the House of Representatives to grant more powers to figures associated with the LNA, such as Aguila Saleh, has polarized the situation, making direct conflict more likely.
Finally, internal conflicts and a lack of trust between the various factions make a peaceful solution highly unlikely, increasing the risk that Libya will slide back into full-scale conflict. The situation in Ghadames, with the possible conflict for the control of energy resources, could be the spark that triggers a new armed conflict in the country.
