Escuchar
Soybeans completed their sixth consecutive bearish session in Chicago today, losing another 2.5% of their value and with the adjustment of the September contract falling from $356.87 to $348.05 per ton, the lowest nominal level since $344.38 on August 27, 2020.
The continued negative trend of the oilseed, which has accumulated a loss of 24.9% from the 458.56 dollars in force on May 27, is directly related to the very good state of the American crops.which yesterday led the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to raise its estimate of production volume for 2024/2025 from 120.70 to 124.90 million tons.
It happens that Among traders, speculation has already begun that this record volume could be even higher. And, in this regard, today the American consultant Michael Cordonnier estimated the average yield of soybeans at 35.98 quintals per hectare, above the 35.78 quintals projected by the USDA. in its monthly report. So, If the private estimator is right, the 34.92 million hectares that the agency calculated yesterday would result in a harvest of 125.66 million tons.
Analysis like the above will become the norm in the coming days, when the traditional ProFarmer crop tour begins, which between the 19th and 22nd of this month will visit fields in the main grain-producing states to provide its own snapshots of the condition of the plants and to make calculations on yields and volumes of soybean and corn harvests.
In the case of soybeans, it should be noted that August is the key month, when plants express their yield potential. And so far, environmental conditions have remained very close to ideal in the Midwest.with regular rainfall that maintained an optimal water balance and helped crops cope with the high temperatures of the American summer.
USDA assessed 68% of soybeans in good/excellent condition, up from 59% a year ago Shutterstock
Yesterday, in its weekly crop report, the USDA reported 68% of soybeans in good/excellent condition.unchanged from the previous report, but above the 59% in force a year ago and the 67% forecast on average by operators. Last Thursday, the agency indicated that approximately 5% of the area covered with soybeans is experiencing drought conditions, a figure that remained far from the 43% at the same time in 2023.
After yesterday’s slight increases, Today, corn also followed the downward trend that has kept its prices at their lowest level in almost four years. At the close of trading in Chicago, the September position fell by US$2.17 and was now adjusted to 148.71 dollars per ton.
As in the case of soybeans, The very good condition of the crops does not allow operators to rule out the chance of the new American harvestwhich is due to begin in just under a month, It is a record, even though yesterday the USDA raised its forecast from 383.56 to 384.74 million tons in its monthly report, This left it below the highest historical record achieved in the still current 2023/2024 campaign, with 389.69 million tons.
In the case of the forager, Cordonnier today projected the average corn yield in the United States at 115.18 quintals per hectare, above the 114.92 quintals forecast by the USDA. With the same exercise done for soybeans, If the private estimator is right, and taking into account the 33.47 million hectares that the US agency estimated will be harvested, production would be even closer to the record mark, reaching 385.51 million tons.
In less than a month, the corn harvest will begin in the United States
For better or worse, depending on which side of expectations you are on, corn has already gone through a good part of the period that defines its yield potential, so the margin for adding quintals is limited. Yesterday the USDA assessed 67% of crops in good/excellent condition, with no changes compared to the previous week, but above 59% at the same time in 2023 and 66% forecast by private companies.
As proof of the positive relationship between climate and crops, last Thursday the USDA said that approximately 5% of the acreage covered with corn is experiencing some level of drought, down from 49% at the same time last year.
Another fact that has been affecting soybean and corn prices in Chicago in a bearish manner is the liquidation of stocks from the 2023/2024 campaign that producers are carrying out, after waiting in vain for better prices to sell the grains that they were able to keep as a reserve of value. Today, less than a month before the new coarse grain harvest begins to leave the fields, they cannot wait any longer, since they need to make room in their storage plants for the flood of grains that is coming.
Conocé The Trust Project
