ISW’s analysis indicates that Russia is currently unwilling to move forces from the east to prevent Ukraine from disrupting the Russian offensive in this regard.
When the Ukrainian operation began, Russian advisers, border guards of the Federal Security Service (FSB) and fighters from the special Chechen unit “Ahmat” operating under the Russian Ministry of Defense were operating in the Kursk region.
At the same time, according to analysts, the Russian military command soon moved to the forces of the Kursk region from the operational reserves, additional units with commissioned troops, units of the main intelligence management group (GRU), Special Operations Forces , other “Ahmat” units. , the first military group of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and former members of the mercenary group “Wagner” to defend against further Ukrainian offensive and regain the territory.
“It is possible that the Russian military command is currently moving advanced, more experienced and better equipped units from eastern or southern Ukraine to the Kursk region, but it is likely to take time more for these units to reach the Kursk region,” said ISW .
However, a Russian military observer reported on August 9 that units of the 44th Northern Army Group were operating near Rilsk, suggesting that the Russian military commander may be moving units of the Northern Army Group North was sent for offensive operations in the north of Kharkiv Oblast. .
“This war correspondent’s claim, if true, shows that the Russian military command considers the operation in Ukraine more important.
The large-scale movement of elements of the Northern Army Group to the Kursk region indicates that the Russian military command has decided that the suspension of offensive operations in the northern part of the Kharkiv region is a necessary sacrifice to adequately respond to the attack of the – Ukraine. , while avoiding the movement of priority parts of the face,” says ISW .
At the same time, analysts stress that a larger movement of Russian troops from frontline areas is likely to occur more slowly, and that more combat-ready units could begin arriving in the Kursk region in a few days.
According to the newspaper “The Washington Post”, the sudden collapse of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is the most serious challenge to the dictator Vladimir Putin since the “Wagner” revolution. It is emphasized that if the Russian forces advance at the same pace as in other directions, it will take them a year to recover the lost territories in the Kursk region.
